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Random Thoughts


We wanna be weighted to "things" the world needs (energy, education, healthcare) while steering clear of (the producers of commodities that are) what we want..

  • On the heels of an embarrassing SU loss, a heckuva Colt comeback and Da Bears back in da big dance, the crowd has packed into MV arena for a fresh week of flickering ticks. The out-of the gate fate has a distinct crimson hue and, with the exception of metals and energy, there's little love in the land of stocks.

  • As many of you know-and for new Minyans in our midst-I've got (among other positions) the following exposure on my sheets.

    • Long energy (drillers, Weatherford)

    • Long metals (including Goldenstar (GSS))

    • Long a snabble of SunMicro (into the pullback)

    • Long a smattering of financial puts, including JP Morgan, which acts great, and HR Block, a sub-prime lender in drag.

  • Please note that Vols are cheap enough for me to fashion my risk profile with lotsa gamma and defined risk.

  • See me, feel me, touch me, hold me.... Given the 2% gig in crude and the green metal screens, CRB 293--which is a massively importantly technical level for commodities---is upon us.

  • Minyan Highlight: Conor Sen.

  • While the SOX (200-day) and NDX (50-day) have broken, the S&P uptrend is just fine, thankyouverymuch. The three levels to watch are S&P 1415 (trendline), 1407 (50-day) and, perhaps most importantly, S&P 1400 (multiple bottoms since December). The 200-day, for purposes of perspective, is S&P 1326. Yes, Thirteen Twenty Six.

  • The financials, which are peeking green through the crimson screens. BankAmerica, Citi and JP Morgan-not to mention Goldman and Merrill, are the definition of bovine hope.

  • The State of the Union is tomorrow so watch for posturing and positioning in the healthcare and energy complexes today.

  • I was (and am) of the opinion that the hedge/mutual fund liquidation in crude evaporated geopolitical risk premium in a time when there should be an uptick in geopolitical risk premium. Don't believe me? Ask Jack tonight--he'll be on FOX at 9:00 PM EST. Dink, dink, dink...

  • Vice Premier Zeng Peiyan said that China, the world's largest consumer of coal and metals, will use its foreign exchange reserves to buy "strategic" resources. The nation is building an emergency supply of crude oil and plans to expand that to metals. They are also the second largest holder of U.S. Treasuries but trimmed purchases of our debt by a deuce (2%) in '06.

  • This development is consistent with a thought we offered last week, that we wanna be weighted to "things" the world needs (energy, education, healthcare) while steering clear of (the producers of commodities that are) what we want (lappys, plasmas, cell phones).

  • Minyanville has been highlighting the chasm between the "Haves" and the "Have Nots" for a mighty long time. Now, it's starting to make the rounds, including Minyan Michael Santoli's excellent cover story in this week's Barron's and the advent of a new, middle class virus.

  • We saw a hedgie punt 750,000 SMH (semiconductor holders into the morning muck). Remember, the chip shtick broke its 200-day last week with the breach of SOX 460 and that level now becomes the first upside resistance.

  • Take this with a grain of salt and a shake of pepper but, during that mini-little downdraft this morning, my instant messages "lit up" with questions asking why "the market is getting killed?!?" That, to me, smacks of folks being positioned long and, thus far, wrong.

  • "When are you going to learn? Last time you disrespected the Gators, you lost our bet on the Final Four and National Championship. Do you have to learn another lesson? Here's the wager: $250 to Ruby Peck Foundation from me if OSU wins the National Championship. If the Gators win, you apologize on the site and vow to never disrespect the Gators again and you include one random thought per day for 10 straight trading days giving some praise of the University of Florida ." Minyan Charlie Poe

    I'm Sorry! I vow never to disrespect the Gators again!


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Position in energy, metals, financials, wft, gss, hrb, jpm
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