Sell hope, buy despair!
If the dam breaks open many years too soon
And if there is no room upon the hill
If your head explodes with dark forebodings too
I'll see you on the dark side of the moon
Hoofy, cell phone glued to his ear, just popped into our temporary west coast digs to check out the early afternoon action. He's clearly psyched that I've emerged from the dark side and slipped into my bull costume but, hey, this is Los Angeles-what have you done for me lately? Before you tell your people to call my people and set up lunch at Barney's, you'd better put that phone down and pay attention to your risk. I love you kid-but if you prove to be box office poison, I'll make sure you never work in this town again!
The tale of two tapes continues as the S&P is weighing on the overall market. I suppose it shouldn't come as a shocker-the internals have yet to confirm (déjà vu), the financials are under distribution and the industrials have issues today. Still, the Minx is trying to confound the masses by dangling a tech-laden carrot in front of the horsemen. It's a game of high stakes chicken, Chuckie, and there's no points for second place.
The point we made earlier regarding successive down days in the S&P is a factor but, make no mistake, it's not a reason (in and of itself) to play the long side. As I'm sure you've seen, the FTSE was down for the eighth straight session today (first time ever) and, rest assured, somebody aggressively bought the seventh day on the same premise. I suppose the best analogy I can think of is the roulette table is Vegas-each roll is independent regardless if there were a string of red or black numbers.
My line in the sand is S&P 865 and, while I'm conscious of geopolitical risks and fundamental malaise, I'm going to hang tough (bull costume) for the time being. As you know, the long side is a struggle for me as a function of my long term bear thesis. Still, I can justify that posture as long as I define my trading profile (which I am doing via a stop). The risk to this (or any) approach is overnight gappage...but let's take it one step at a time, please.
The earnings season has hit full stride and that won't abate until we get through this next leg. ALTR, LRCX, TXN, CDWC, CHKP, MERQ, SEBL and QCOM will state their case tonight while EMC, LXK, BLX, NOK, CAT and Mickey D's will paint the morning tape. In addition, the E.C.B will hold court tomorrow morning (rates), MU has a company sponsored meeting and Beeks will swing by with the jobless claims and leading indicators. In short, it's gonna be a nutty Thursday and it's important that you come in with a clear head.
In Minyanville news, I have to say that it's pretty funny that Snoop Tone and I posted simultaneous snaps to each other from opposite sides of the country. It wasn't a coordinated effort but I'll say it again-he's the man. If you can find people who you trust, who you like and who you respect, you snap 'em up like pop tarts in an honor bar. That's not to say you're a tart, Tony Pitt, but you get the drift.
Fokker is freaking out because he's being inundated with Superbowl fleece picks and he's getting some of the same scores. Dude...relax...this is the big leagues and, occasionally, you will be busy! Still, in an effort to ease his stress (anything else, boss?), I must ask that all picks are accompanied by this tie-breaker: who will be MVP?
I've "doing" lunch with Casey and some other notables so this could be my last post today. Before I go, I've got to tell you that, for some reason, I dreamed of Joel all night and wanted to pass along his site to those who haven't met him. I always try to do "something Joel" each day and I truly feel that I'm a better person for it. If you're having a bad day, cookie, go read the guestbook-you'll learn the difference between loss and loss.
Have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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