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Random Thoughts


If the internals stay firm during this probe...


  • Some Dollar squalor from All-Star guitar signee Warren Buffett.

  • Tremendous insight from our good friend Herb Greenberg at Marketwatch: "

    "I gotta tell you, Toddo, if people start bidding up Overstock (OSTK) and others because of the belief that Amazon (AMZN) or Ebay (EBAY) are losing share, they're looking at it the totally wrong way. Amazon is maturing and feeling the effects of growing competition. And OSTK isn't the ONLY competitor. In fact, even IT has competition that is nipping at its heels, such as Smartbargains, which has filed to go public. I think the "easy" money, if you can call it that, has been made in Internet retailing. Now the key will be whether any of the newcomers can make money and make it consistently. Buyer beware. Herb"

  • Camile can't be happy about this.

  • Despite the flattish nature of the averages, the bulls hold the upper hand today as a function of our aforementioned tells. It feels "S's over N's" but the four-letter freaks are trying to tag along.

  • This is part of my primary motivation for coming to Minyanville each day.

  • Crude has a rude 'tude today (+3%).

  • Just mullet over.

  • The dollar continues to struggle at DXY 84. While I think the greenback will organically split 2:1 in the next ten years, my humble two cents is that it powers a bit higher first.

  • I've had trading days that felt like this.

  • Keep an eye on JP Morgan (JPM) as it ticks closer to the PnF sell signal discussed yesterday.

  • Icahn...Icahn so far away. Couldn't get away...

  • Technical update from Scott Reamer on today's Buzz: As per yesterday's note, we have "5" down (a minor completed impulse wave) from the peaks on the 18th right into/near the important supports we mentioned in that note: SPX 1169/72 and NDX 1515-1520. It's very likely that, even if the very bearish third wave down is taking place (from the 18th peaks) the open gaps created by yesterday's opening move lower will be filled. Those gaps reside at SPX 1185 and NDX 1546. So we'll look for those gaps to be filled first before we can expect a larger resumption of the very bearish 3rd wave down. Recall the two possibilities: a bounce that closes those gaps and simply keeps on going (the bullish interpretation - 30% probability) and a bounce that closes those gaps in a corrective manner and then starts the even more violent down move of a wave 3 (the bearish interpretation and a 70% probability). There are a bunch of short term non-confirmations of these lows in the indices, further suggesting a bounce of some degree is probable. Time and price action will tell us what degree of bounce: minor (and bearish) or substantial (and bullish). You know what we think the probabilities are. As always, not advice, just sharing the technical indicators with you here at this important juncture."

  • People in glass houses....

  • In a stunning coincidence, Billy Meehan has located his twin brother in Prague!

  • We've still got some pretty meaty gaps sitting above yesterday's opening prints.

  • Are you ready for some football?!?

  • My biggest decision today? Pizza or sushi. My choice? Both, naturally!

  • The metals are on the move as the XAU (+2%) tickles back above the 200-day

  • Thurston's gotta be bummin'!

  • Hung jury?

  • Watch the internals during this probe--if they don't ding, the bulls will swing. We saw a similar situation yesterday (rally attempts not confirmed by the internals).

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