By Todd Harrison Jan 21, 2004 2:18 pm
Oops!.. I did it again
I played with your heart
Got lost in the game
Oh baby, baby
Are you sitting down? Fokker, in his infinite wisdom, flubbed yet another sushi sprint! Luckily, I sidestepped this particular protein panic and fetched my own fish. Others weren't so lucky and were left reeling in the wake of the mistake. Jeff Puglisi? Go fish! Danielle Assante? Go fish! Boo? You've been fishing too long--maybe it's time you took up another hobby!
With Snapper getting piggy--with the banks--the wishbone dichotomy has become more pronounced. The financials have been the driest eye in today's house and now, as they tickle BKX 1000 (more psychological than technical), the S-car-go will be tested. Across town, the semiconductor slippage is a mirror's image of the line of scrimmage. They gots no lift, as of yet, as supply fills and the distribution gets, well, distributed.
As I write, my contacts are pingin' me with the macro towels. I just saw two lots of 750,000 SPY to buy (likely the same customer trying to ignite fright) and a slew of QQQ (trying to trigger "buy stops" above NDX 1546 to fill the overnight gap). Smoke is starting to emit from the shaking machine but, as it stands, it's still chuggin' and spittin' out performance (and bears).
Personally, I'm a better seller into BKX 1000 (and with S&P resistance above) although I'm quite conscious that the PANIC phase can get more panicky. The technicals, by and large, are bullish, the fundies are coming in better than estimates (thanks greenback!), psychology is giddy up and the structural elements (and electoral agenda) remain in play. There is little "justification" to be short (outside of the frightening backdrop) but remember Minyans, playing just 'cause everyone else is won't validate losses. Relative performance is one thing. Absolute losses are another.
The earnings avalanche continues overnight and just to keep us honest, Beeks will swing by with the initial jobless claims (exp. 345k), continuing claims (exp. 3165k) and leading indicators (exp. .2%). A bevy of telecoms will paint the morning dew, along with some storage, software, airlines and healthcare issues. A little something for everyone, mon frere, as the plate continues to regenerate. Kinda like that chick in Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines.
I'm gonna jump and juggle as we dance and struggle. Fokker and I are up to our eyeballs so I'll do my best to get out another post. If not, keep it right and tight and--whatever you do--don't trade emotional. There are certain tenets in this business that always prove themselves to be true and that one is at the top of the list. Best of luck into the closing bell and if we don't reconnect, have a kick ass night.
position in qqq
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