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Random Thoughts


It could be worse?


  • Huffs, puffs and the housing market.

  • Why can't I hear the words "pork chops" without thinking of apple sauce?

  • By way of the always insightful Fleck Rap..."As Jim Grant said in the most recent issue of Grant's Interest Rate Observer: "Before the scandal, Fannie's business model was one part simplicity, another part privilege, and a third part audacity: Borrow at a government-advantaged rate; invest at a slightly higher rate. Leverage the balance sheet as no private enterprise could. Grow and grow. Deliver predictable, stair-step earnings growth.""

  • Calamari for everyone!

  • Mini randoms from Fil Zucchi: 1) The type of reversals in Wellpoint (WLP) and United Health (UNH) tend to leave longer lasting scars; I also just got filled on some WLP calls (to close) below parity, i.e. someone really did not want them come tomorrow. I know it's time to start playing pin the tail, but . . . 2) The homebuilders look primed for . . . if you seriously thought I was going anywhere near that quagmire remind me to call you on April 1st. 3) Small / Mid software names are looking mostly green. 4) How much ammo has Hoofy used up these first three weeks of the year against a backdrop of miserly mutual fund inflows? 5) Five bucks here, five bucks there, pretty soon you are talking money.

  • Yes officer, I can confirm that Billy Meehan was in Minyanville on Wednesday night.

  • Doublin' down on the housing frown.

  • If you're not on today's Buzz, you're missin' some strong chatter on Social Security. These are the types of dialogues that were made for the Buzz & Banter.

  • Bi-polar disorder remains one of the most misunderstood ailments in society today.

  • "Can market internals be as strong in 2005 as they were in 2004 and 2003? If you've answered "probably not," then it's a reasonably good idea to (a) get less bullish/more conservative and (b) start looking for short/sale ideas."-- Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder

  • Housing hat trick.

  • Fear and loathing in the hedge fund hot potato.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "What do you think the odds are of a 3 handle on the 30-YR by the end of the year? I'll go on the record and say we "get there" before 2005 is up." Uber-Minyan Adam Michael.

  • Would you like to license the Buzz & Banter application firm wide?

  • More Mini-Minyan Mailbags! "Toddo.....seems to me that the dollar strength may continue much further than most think due to $500 billion eligible to be repatriated from foreign earnings back to the United States." Minyan Jim

  • Between Wachovia (WB) and Deutsche Bank (DB), the overcapacity in the financial industry continues to weed out. I hate to admit it but I still think that we're in the early innings of this process.

  • Who do I want to win the SuperBowl? Anyone but the Pats! (Think tuck rule.)

  • Odour Toddo.

  • Yes, I see the traction in the semis and respect the potential for rotation. Clearly, the ability of Citigroup (C) to rally (BKX about to turn green) is an overt positive. And yes, visions of an invisible hand are dancing around the back of my mind (in front of Dubya's big day). That said, unless these internals can shift from their 2:1 negative posture, I think Snapper gets smacked like a Raider running back. In a perfect world, the opening "gaps" will fill first (thereby sucking in the most hopers) but one step at a time...

  • I don't lose my temper much anymore but these types of stories chap me arse.

  • At the risk of upsetting our red Minyans, I would be remiss if I didn't communicate that the deterioration of support for President Bush is a, well, red flag. With the lowest approval rating in 30 years (since Nixon), further slippage has the potential to impact sentiment. And in a psychology bubble, that is a dangerous thing.

  • JP Morgan (JPM) will break a major PnF trandline from the March 2003 low with (if it) ticks at $37. So ya know...

  • I want to see the Orange with three loses and LOSE the Big East tourney. That should get 'em nice and juiced for March Madness.

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