Hump Day Randoms
By Todd Harrison Jan 19, 2005 9:06 am
Think positive and let's mount thy hump!
- Huslin' Hussman on the state of the tape.
- All they need is friggin' laser beams!
- Aunt Fannie (FNM) bit the bullet last night and cut her dividend in half (this is all part of her seafood diet--she saw food and she ate it!). I've been pretty vocal regarding my distrust of this company for a number of years. In fact, I almost had to duck the tomatoes and spoiled cabbage when I was on Squawk Box (summer of '03) and voiced the very same concerns that have since come to fruition. Prescient? Yep. Profitable? Nope. The stock remains stuck in the very same spot.
- Iron Horsepower! Don't miss Professor Reynolds' excellent missive on the ramifications of General Motor's (GM) debt. And please add that stock as a mainstay tell today.
- I limped into the office this morning with one leg in my metaphorical bull costume (25% conviction on the long side) and will key on my mainstay tells for guidance this morning. They include BKX (100-102), breadth (snazzy yesterday), earnings reactions (psychology), NDX 1580 (resistance) and Google (GOOG) (acne prone?).
- Along those lines, JP Morgan (JPM) is the third largest weighting in the BKX (9.5%). Watch for signs of draggage/slippage in the financials on the heels of this and Fannie.
- It is shocking to me that Minyanville is not sponsoring this event.
- There are a few decisions to make that will allow for a more profitable trading experience. The first is which "side" you're on (long, short or balanced) and the second is which metric (fundies, technicals, psychology or structural) will assume the heaviest weight in the minxy mix. There are no blanket answers or one-line answers. The market is non-linear and we must constantly adapt our process to "fit" the tape.
- Remember when we used to talk about "legal overcapacity" when there were as many students in law school as there were lawyers?
- I've stopped trying to "game" Int'l Business Machines (IBM). The simple truth is that they, like many other large multi-nationals, can "print" a wide range of numbers at any given time. Besides, with 8000 hedge funds standing in a circle shooting at each other, I would rather let the dust settle and see the whites of the surviving eyes.
- Elvis has evidently left the building.
- Jeff Saut of Raymond James is the only strategist I've heard speak of potential (market) unrest as a function of the Iraqi elections.
- Syracuse sidestepped a night full of college hoops upsets with a big home win against dreaded G'town.
- The Texas two-step.
- The Washington Times reports that the military has deployed anti-aircraft missiles within range of the Capitol as part of security enhancements for tomorrow's presidential inauguration. The missile deployment comes even though the FBI and Homeland Security Department concluded in a recent threat assessment that there is no credible information showing that terrorists have targeted inaugural events.
- Investor's Intelligence weekly sentiment survey has found a mini-migration from Matador City. Bulls decreased to 55.9 (vs. 59.4) and Boo's brethren upticked to 24.7 (vs. 22.9). It's a step in a less frothy direction.
- Of dollars, bonds, crude and metals.
- Some savvy traders are scratching their heads why Yahoo! (YHOO) first quarter guidance isn't more robust on the heels of such a strong report.
- Can you imagine the look on the officer's face if he ever got pulled over?
- Critter warning systems.
- "People have come to think [stocks] are okay again. They're not," said Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund and author of three investment books, Adventure Capitalist, Investment Biker and Hot Commodities.
- There will be a ton of crosscurrents competing for your attention today. Please keep an eye out for sector rotations (financials, cyclicals, semis, nets) and asset allocation as we find our way.
- Hit 'em hard Cookie.
position in fnm
Get The Minyanville
Daily Recap Newsletter
Daily Recap Newsletter