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Minyan Mailbag - '05 Outlook



Note: Our goal in Minyanville is to remove intimidation from the financial markets and encourage an interactive dialogue among the Minyanship. We share this next discussion with that very intent.


As I was reading various financial publications this past weekend that help me form my 2005 outlook, I found a very interesting theme emerge. It was the disagreement over the SHAPE OF THE YIELD CURVE. The more bearish outlooks look for a much flatter yield curve and the more bullish outlooks look for a steeper yield curve. That is interesting to me as the yield curve has recently become my single biggest indicator of how things will play out.

f you had to pick one indicator in 2005, what indicator would you use to assess the market/economy?

Minyan Mark

P.S. Is the strength in the Yen indicating a possible IMMINENT revaluation of the Chinese YUAN?

P.P.S How leveraged is Asia (AKA Japan/China) to the U.S. consumer? Could Asian currencies decline versus the dollar if the U.S. consumer pulls back?


I would focus my attention on the dollar, especially the dollar yen. A weakening dollar will dictate the yield curve and affect asset markets in more substantial ways in 2005: whereas a weakening dollar lifted asset prices in 2004, such could easily have the opposite effect in 2005.

Prof. Succo

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