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Random Thoughts


Do you ever wonder...

  • S&P 1275 and NDX 1705 are the technical focus (foci?) du jour. If Hoofy can hold that line in the face of double digit dips in Intel (INTC) and Yahoo! (YHOO), a fresh spate of optimism might manifest in Matador City. If not, S&P 1245 becomes the new floor. Billy Ray Valentine has set the price.

  • How important is Citigroup (C) $48? Citi to the tape is like Big Ben to the Steelers.

  • Speak now or forever hug your critters. And please be sure to click on 'our town.' It's pretty unbelievable.

  • My money is on Meehan.

  • "The only place in the world where capacity doesn't appear to have been added in the last 10 years is the Tokyo stock exchange. The "glitch" appears to have shut down trading early, in what has to be described as the first legitimate correction since this rally commenced. There is some support at 15000 (a point which held intra-day), but the 50-day held on the close. Given the 200-day remains 2500 points below current levels (we doubt the market goes there), a more modest time correction appears reasonable. We are opportunistic buyers of neglected oversold conditions." Lehman chartist Jeff DeGraaf

  • After the initial (short-covering) pop, the internals are back in a 2:1 negative mode. The financials remain a focus as XBD 200 (former resistance) is the next best support.

  • Professor Succo and I will be hosting a town hall chat at UPENN on March 26th and Harvard on February 7th. If you would like to loop your school into the UMV syndicate, please click here.

  • Is this akin to giving a free quart of milk away with each new annual Minyanville passport? And please be sure to click on 'our town' to get a sense of critter history!

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag

    "Toddo, I am always confused when you mention gamma and being long volatility. Does "long vol" mean long puts and calls on certain stocks? Donke shoen. Minyan Jay"

    Yo Jay, yo Jay, check this out...

    For purposes of my discourse, gamma and "long vol" are the same thang. In layman's terms, it simply means that I get longer as the market rallies and shorter when the market falls. For that "right," I pay a premium (decay, or theta) that is ever-present. Professor Succo has written some snazzy tutorials on the subject. If you haven't perused or pondered, it's most certainly worthy of a read.

  • This is your friendly Minyanville reminder to make your Valentine's Day reservations. No, seriously.

  • "We talk about liquidity, the immense amount being injected by our friendly bankers. I will tell you this: there is absolutely NO liquidity in stocks right now. We trade quite a bit and cannot find any real bids or offers. If institutions really wanted to move something, up or down, they would not be able to. Institutions provide the real liquidity in the market. When they have cash, they buy. When they don't, they don't sell. You can take that how you want. But perhaps that is why the Japan small cap indexes have been down around 25% in the last two days." John Succo on today's Buzz (12:00)

  • "This chart is updated from 1980 to last Friday and depicts bubbles in prices of gold, Japan, the Naz and S&P Homebuilders. If the pattern does follow through, as Professor Peterson once said, you may want to 'take the last stagecoach out of Dodge." Professor Bennet Sedacca

  • Lost in today's shuffle is the utter drubbin' in the metals (XAU -2.7%). Keep in my--and pure perspective--that the 200-day is 26% lower at XAU 102.

  • Keep your head up Minyans. Emotional decisions have a way of coming back to bite you in the arse.

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