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Pressure Cooker


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You have to learn to pace yourself
You're just like everybody else

(Billy Joel)

As I alluded to in today's Randoms, I have more meetings this week than the J-Date server. I know that doesn't appease the worthy Minyans in our midst but I offer that vibe with three intentions. One, we're in the midst of some powerful behind the scenes action that will abate in the next few weeks (patience please--this too shall pass). Two, this particular post will be somewhat terse and void of wit or wisdom (there's your window Mr. Macke) and lastly, I wanted to offer a quick update on my posture.

I eased a leg into my metaphorical bull costume this morning (25% conviction on the long side) as a function of BKX 100, defined risk (S&P 1175) and a sense that Hoofy was due. Since that time, over on the Buzz, I "rolled up" my stop to Friday's high (S&P 1185ish) to redefine my risk/reward dynamic and remove emotion from the equation. As it stands--or as I stand, as the case may be--I'm gonna hop home with my leg in the bovine suit. I am doing that with the understanding that gap risk exists, NDX 1580 is resistance and my big picture bent remains bearish.

Int'l Business (IBM), Motorola (MOT) and Yahoo! (YHOO) will paint the tape after the close and a trifecta either way will shape tomorrow's opening. And again, while we're all yearning for earnings, we must remember that fundies are just one leg under the minxy table and exogenous risk exists. In particular, I remain concerned that "something," coupled with the overt complacency, has the potential to tip the scales rather violently. That's why my risk is defined and my discipline is constant.

Gotta hop if I'm gonna get this out by the bell. I sincerely hope that you coined a few shekels today and--if not--that you've got the balance and perspective to know that tomorrow is a brand new day.

May peace be with you.


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