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Random Thoughts

By

Hope you enjoyed the long weekend!

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  • George and Weezie got nuttin' on the critters! Please take some time to chew through the New Minyanville digs as we ready for the minxy migration.

  • Minyan Michael Santoli of Barron's noted the Dow Jones Index of long/short hedgies have their highest exposure to the long side since 2001.

  • I had mixed emotions watching the New England-Denver game this weekend. But when push came to shove, I found myself pulling for the Pats as no self-respecting Raider fan would ever root for the Broncos.

  • NYSE breadth has been 2:1 negative since the word 'go.' The longer this stays skewed, the steeper Snapper's task becomes.

  • Jeff Saut noted in his weekly missive that we haven't seen a 10% correction since October 2002. How does that manifest in the trading psyche? Players have been conditioned to cover on dips in an attempt to capture Red Dye profits. That psychology has effectively buoyed the tape but will come home to roost when the third dip fails to hold.

  • "Stories in the San Diego Union-Trib this morning about a cooling of housing prices in this sizzling market. Median prices here rose JUST 7.6% last year, down from 21.1% the year before." Herb Greenberg of MarketWatch on today's Buzz (8:43)

  • The dollar index (DXY) is right back at the top end of the churn channel (under December lows).

  • Imagine where crude would be without the recent warm front?

  • General Electric ($35) and Citigroup ($48) remain important technical levels as we ready for earnings.

  • I made some disciplined option sales in SunMicro (SUNW) during the Friday jig and the meat of my current position is now in the common.

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know...
    • With the volatility sisters up double digits, is this the start of the volatility uptick we've been waiting for?
    • Why are Billy and Chachi wearing cowboy hats today?
    • Does the continued lethargy in market internals point a big red arrow at S&P 1275?
    • Is Citi (C) $48 circled on ye radar?
    • Do you see Yahoo! (YHOO) and Google (GOOG) trying to lead by example?
    • Biggie or Tupac?

  • Minyan Adam points out that Exxon Mobil (XOM) is currently retesting the uptrend line from November 2003 that was broken in October.

  • "As we approach midday, seeing slightly more net new sell signals than buy signals today. Also of note, Semiconductors are showing more net new buy signals than sell signals internally, that despite the red SOX. Interestingly, among the sectors showing the weakest technicals recently are two consumer related sectors: Restaurants and Retail. Worth keeping an eye on as battle lines are being drawn up between bulls and bears on the consumer front." Pepe Depew on today's Buzz (11:39)

  • Watch out Dukies, the Huskies look like a team on a mission.

  • It was the accepted practice in Babylon 4,000 years ago that for a month after the wedding, the bride's father would supply his son-in-law with all the mead he could drink. Mead is a honey beer and because their calendar was lunar based, this period was called the honey month, which we know today as the honeymoon. This, of course, has no relation to the honeydew marriage.

  • Hoofy remains fairly focused on S&P 1275. I told the once brazen bovine that we'll likely hold that mold in front of IBM, Yahoo! (YHOO) and Intel (INTC) tonight.

  • Good luck Minyans.

R.P.

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