what's that Moo I hear coming from the back room?
Ah, the wonders of modern technology! I'll tell ya, it's a good thing that I didn't have wireless internet access in the spring of 2000...I'd of gotten hoodwinked! Chalk one up for Pepe and the techies as I'm sitting in the airport terminal (with a handful of noisy critters!) and I can post to the site before my journey to the hole! Hey Boo, take it easy on those cocktails....you're in public!
According to my trusty ILX, not much has changed since I left with the expectation of a pick-up in volume. The S&P is still flirting with the 900 support level, the SOX is doing the same at 300, the banks (not the brokers) continue to give pause to the bears, breadth is 3:1 negative and Microsoft and IBM both weigh on the tape. Yawn!
We know from experience that expirations typically focus their movement around the bells and our first expiry of the new year is no exception. I'm getting all kinds of weird looks from the other passengers as I'm sitting here naked (sans bull or bear costume) but, all in all, I'm comfortable with my decision. I agree with Tony that S&P 875 is likely (coincides with the SOX neckline, by the way) but,for purposes of identifying trades with an advantageous risk/reward, this last move was a better bet. Now it get's harder.
Next week will feature housing starts, a retail conference (Merrill) and the semiconductor book-to-bill on Tuesday, a SUNW and CCU meeting on Wednesday and the E.C.B, jobless claims and leading indicators on Thursday. Hopefully, it will also feature a preview of the Raiders in the Superbowl, by we've got a tough game to get through first.
I'm gonna go round up the troops. Hoofy and Daisy have quietly slipped away and I utter to think what they're up to! Keep your wits about you as you approach the closing bell...the decisions you make in the next hour will dictate the risk profile you sleep with for the next three days. Choose wisely and remember--opportunities are made up easier than losses.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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