Remember, Minyans--it's expiration and there's cross-currents you can't game.
You never thought you'd be alone
this far down the line
and I know what's been on your mind,
you're afraid it's all been wasted time.
It's a chilly morning in the city of critters and, as evidenced by this morning's research, the analyst community seems to be covering up. I had barely removed my favorite Raider sweatshirt when, out of nowhere, I was bombarded with negative research calls from every direction. Hey--now I know how the Jet's secondary felt!
Goldman Sachs kicked off the mush and downgraded both the software and enterprise systems/storage sector to cautious (from neutral). To add insult to injury, they banished Microsoft from the current investment list (although they maintained an "outperform"). The mighty bear joined the hazing by downgrading IBM and, in perhaps the most ambitious call of the day, JPM Chase said that they're seeing mounting evidence of a fundamental meltdown in the semiconductor business environment---and believes the SOX will trade to the 210-235 zone. Man, that's a lot of dandruff!
Let's see...SUNW said on their call last night that visibility continues to be uncertain, Microsoft's CFO said the company still sees "pretty soft demand" and, if you recall, Intel said that there's "no underlying economic growth." Call me crazy, but I'm beginning to pick up a pattern here. Evidently I'm not the only one...as I'm penning this piece, Europe is getting smoked faster than a Philly blunt at a Snoop Dogg concert. Watch the German DAX, G...it's down almost 3% (and through DAX 3000!).
Our tells today--away from the obvious tech subsectors--will be the financials (looking for the SOX/BKX duopoly to point in the same direction), the greenback (down for six days in a row), retailers (consumer proxy) and Fokker (fog alert). Also, don't forget that the Charles Woodson Michigan Consumer Confidence report hits the tape at 10am (exp. 87).
I'm dancing around with one leg in my metaphorical bear costume and, while the old Toddo would stick a fork in his eye for not putting that third appendage on during yesterday's fade, I've learned that looking back is wasted energy. I've seem too many traders spend their day beating themselves up for the wouldas, couldas and shouldas and, when they do that, they miss more opportunities! Profitability can only be found in the trades ahead, friends--head up.
Finally, I'm giddy with anticipation as I await Tony's co-hosting gig on CNNfn at 9:30am. While I've always had a face for radio, Snoop Tone has one of those mugs that make woman want to be with him and men want to be like him. Can you really blame Daisy for leaving cartoons of milk on his doorstep?
Hit 'em hard today!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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