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Fumble!

By

Hey! If you gonna call a game like that, Mr. Gates, I didn't have a chance!

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Good morning and welcome to the end of our rope. After hundreds of earnings and mill full of rumors, a mortal Minyan has to be fried and frazzled. The steady flow of catalysts takes it's toll over time and, as a result, traders have a tendency to make mental errors. With only eight more hours before a well deserved three-day break, I implore you to splash some water on your face...jump up and down...do whatever it takes to recapture the eye of the tiger. Today's a big day, cookie,and we need you on your toes--get up!

Microsoft's earning's release was a bearish catalyst for the tape but, as a function of the recent rally, traders tip-toed on the sell side during after-hours trading. It's an intuitive reaction from a psychological standpoint, right? The tape has absorbed a lot in recent sessions and the widespread belief was that Hoofy was merely taking a breath before his next upside assault. As a result, the bears were quick to cover and the bulls barely blinked as the screens turned red.

The earning's this week haven't justified the recent rally but, make no mistake, the bulls know that a lot of people are watching on this one. They're gonna put on their best game face as they try to force the "can't get 'em down" crowd to get involved. Think about it--the incessant chatter has been focused on the ability of the market to shrug off bad news. If the bulls can toe the line in the face of Microsoft, the performance anxiety will get loud and we'll see our blow-off top.

That's not to say I want to play it that way. One's trading methodology and risk profile should always be an extension of their thought process. I pulled one leg out of my bear costume yesterday (leaving one leg) as there were gorillas in our midst and I wanted to listen to what they had to say. By the time we had finished our conversation, I didn't hear anything that made me feel warm and fuzzy and I continue to feel that the long side is the salmon to the market's stream.

Alas, it's Friday and you know what that means--Oakland Raider football is only two days away. Be forewarned--if the boyz from the hood drop the ball and miss the dance, I'm going to be a very sad Toddo. We've paid our dues the last few years and I want to see Timmy get his ring. It's there for the taking--we just have to focus.

Good luck today.

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