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Random Thoughts


Define your risk and practice patience.

  • Is THIS going through investors' minds in front of earnings season?

  • The "stand out" action thus far? Yep, the rude 'tude in crude, which is off another 3%. I spoke about this dynamic this morning and, while the OSX is off a percent--trading very well, to these eyes--I continue to beat that drum.

  • A few sell side guys are spinning BankAmerica's "push" (to raise the 10% cap on total bank deposits) as a positive for the regional players. It could be, but it'll take some time before those wheels are in a position to spin.

  • S&P 1432ish remains a level of lore for bovine galore.

  • We're seeing some large protection being bought in the marketplace. There's a buyer of 40,000 QQQQ June 42 puts. Someone purchased a January '08 "risk reversal (bought put, sold call) in size. And someone bought 2500 S&P June 1350 puts. All in all, the (downside) impact of that supply has been muted and absorbed.

  • Earnings season kicks into high gear this week which, coupled with expiration influences, could make for a whippy trip. Define your risk and practice patience. It doesn't matter how many trades you make, it only matters that you have a high winning percentage on the trades you play.

  • Intel (INTC) reports this afternoon and I'm keeping a close on eye this puppy. The Mother Chip, along with its semicap brethren, has been under accumulation of late. We know that there's a big technical gap above $22.85 but we also know that binary events, such as earnings, sometimes render technicals obsolete. Someone has made a big bet that the gap fills, however, as a slug of those January 22.5 calls traded last week for twenty cents.

  • I'm scooting to Houston this afternoon to deliver the keynote at tomorrow's Ameritrade APEX live event. It's a 24-hour turnaround but I'll be away from the Buzz until Thursday morning. So you know…and thanks.

  • I still think that commodity consolidation will be a central theme in 2007 as private equity, M&A and secular themes commingle.

  • Are these reviews of "hedge funds" NASD approved? (scroll down.)

  • Someone snuck in 10,000 Apple January 100 calls this morning in front of earnings tomorrow.

  • And just like that, the Trannies are eyeballin' all-time highs near TRAN 5K?

  • All my exes live in Texas. That's why I make my home in Tennessee

  • I thought the first four hours of 24 were strong-not "mind boggling," but very strong. I'm not sure I agree with Jack's decision regarding Curtis but I suppose that's what makes for good television.

  • Personally, I woulda liked to see a Baltimore/Bolts AFC Championship but alas, my gridiron dreams were lost long ago. Snaps to Professor Phil Erlanger who brazenly told Herb Greenberg that the Pats would take it home while we were vibing on a MV conference call late Friday.

  • "I did some analysis a few years ago on a mine that for every dollar the diesel price went up, they lost $10 per ounce of gold... hmmm. To any producers listening, DON'T hedge the gold price, but bloody well look after the expenses (that means OIL). Any producers who hedge oil costs and float gold revenues get my vote!" Laurie McGuirk on today's Buzz.

  • "When are you going to learn? Last time you disrespected the Gators, you lost our bet on the Final Four and National Championship. Do you have to learn another lesson? Here's the wager: $250 to Ruby Peck Foundation from me if OSU wins the National Championship. If the Gators win, you apologize on the site and vow to never disrespect the Gators again and you include one random thought per day for 10 straight trading days giving some praise of the University of Florida ." Minyan Charlie Poe

    I'm Sorry! I vow never to disrespect the Gators again!

  • Hit 'em hard, Minyans, and hit 'em straight.


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Position in drillers, metals, financials.
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