By Todd Harrison Jan 16, 2004 2:18 pm
May peace be with you!
While the firelight's aglow
Strange shadows in the flames will grow
Till things we've never seen
Will seem familiar
The afternoon screens are dancing green as the critters suck down some more caffeine. Daisy just walked by to show Johnny C a little leg (the dairy diva is craving some attention) and I suppose you can't blame her--Hoofy has his hands full. Hey Fokker, put your tongue back in your mouth--she'd snap you like a twig!
There's a story going around that I need to make you aware of. Some are saying that part of the reason the tape has been so jiggy into January was the "unwind" of sizable collars. As the story goes, this protection was put on early last year ( "off board") and priced against the LEAPS (long term options). Those options expire on today's close and, as such, some are speculating that the synthetic bid will dissipate. I can't confirm (or deny) this but I wanted to put it on your radar nonetheless.
Conscious that S&P 1150 is looming above, it's hard to find fault with the technicals of the market leaders. General Electric (GE:NYSE) broke through a triple top and the brokers (XBD), semis (SOX), and biotechs (BTK) all look like they wanna drag Boo through the streets. As I just said to my friend David Simon, you've gotta be N-U-T-S nuts to be short here which, in a screwy way, is bearish in and of itself. With that said, the above mentioned charts (and the prevailing momentum) warrant respect as we eyeball the three-day weekend.
When we dust off our turrets on Tuesday, the earnings avalanche will pick up the pace. 3M (MMM:NYSE), Citigroup (C:NYSE), General Motors (GM:NYSE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:NYSE), United Tech (UTX:NYSE) and Wells Fargo (WFC:NYSE) will highlight the fight and it'll continue in earnest through Thursday's close. Get your rest this weekend, Minyans, because the puffy eyes will surely return.
If you didn't see Scotty Reamer's latest post (or if you're a new Minyan and aren't familiar with him), I strongly encourage you to take a gander at his latest goose. At this point in the game, you've gotta be conscious of the backdrop and keep your eyes wide open as we trudge ahead. Perhaps we haven't seen the last gasp blow-off that many are expecting but remember, friends, you didn't see it the other way last March.
I'm gonna jump and juggle as I focus my attention on the expiration risk. This business is the farthest thing from easy so take the time this weekend and enjoy the fruits of your labor. We've got a Saturday to snooze, a Sunday full of football and a Monday to kick back. Work to live--don't live to work--and appreciate the time we've got. Tomorrow is promised to nobody, my friends. Make the most of today.
Have a peaceful weekend.
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