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The Scare Bear

By

If you keep calling Daisy out, you're gonna have to deal with me!

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Boo, who's been spending most of his day asking Fokker if the fog has lifted, just pulled up beside me and asked me if I'd like a glass of warm milk. I know, I know....I'm guilty of premature evacuation (on that bear leg) but nobody ever went broke taking a profit. I still have one leg in my suit (25% conviction on the short side) and, once I digest tonight's catalysts, I can always dress back up (or down). What if I don't have the chance? Well, opportunities are made up easier than losses.

Slaino just walked by and marveled at how resilient the tape is and he's right. While the market has gotten clipped a bit, the predominant fear is still focused on missing the upside. That's been an ominous sign these past few years but, as it permeates, it can potentially be self-fulfilling. While one can argue that the tape acts dry in the face of spiking crude and gold (not to mention potential war!)--think about it--there's a LOT of reasons the market should trade lower.

As we ready ourselves for the earnings avalanche, I urge you to think about your relative edge. Remember, there's no mandate that says you've gotta trade every catalyst and if you're toin cossing, give it a rest. MSFT, EBAY, IBM, SUNW and JNPR will highlight tonight's after-hour action and GE will (hopefully) bring good things to light in the morning. Lest we forget, Monsieur Beeks will also be dancin' in the morning sunshine with the orange crop report, Industrial Production (exp. .2%) and the Charles Woodson Confidence number (exp. 75.7). In other words--there's a lot of moving parts involved and risk is high. I repeat, risk is high.

All good things in all good time, fellow Minyans, as we inch our way through another year. As you might have guessed, I'll be heading west to support my Silver and Black in their quest for the Superbowl. I'm not taking the Titans lightly--there's a lot of Raider fans suddenly and that scares the sprinkles out of me. Regardless, I'll be loading the critters into a van tomorrow (a bit before the closing bell) and heading to the Hole.

More importantly, and at the risk of sounding trite, it's January 16th 2003. There will never be another January 16th 2003 in our lifetime so don't waste it stressing about the flickering ticks. Get away from those screens, clear your head and find some smiles. Everything else is fluff.

Have a peaceful night.

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