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Shell Shocked!

By

That's good disicpline, kid!

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Leaves are falling all around,
It's time I was on my way.
Thanks to you, I'm much obliged
For such a pleasant stay.


(Led Zeppelin)

Hans and Franz (Blix) are all over the tape talking about the warheads they found in Baghdad and, bingo, the market shed some weight. Let's see now...this morning, there was chatter that Saddam was moving to Del Boca Vista (exile) and the Minx popped (only to fail). Now, there's Iraqi noise the other way and the Minx dropped...but is it that easy?

I'm not smart enough to tell you how perception will shape today's reality but remember, cookie, there's a truckload of information due after the close. If you're pressing and guessing based on the last news item, take a step back and a deep breath. The goal is to identify a proactive trading strategy, remove emotion and use price to your advantage. I know you've heard it before--but are you listening?

The semis are weighing on the collective psychology and, while I continue to be irked by the massive dandruff, a savvy reader pointed out the following. Look at the SOX chart since the summer--a bullish case "could" be made that this entire pattern is a reverse head and shoulders! I don't think it is, my friends, but it just goes to show you that beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

While I continue to harbor concerns about this market (my sell signals have only just begun), my inclination is to slip a leg out of my metaphorical bear costume (leaves 25%). It's a baby step, I know, but I hopped into this posture during the Dubya stimulus fade and, well...baby steps add up (and you're less likely to trip!). My goal is to hit for average--not power--and, in front of the gorillas in our midst, it's the disciplined thing to do.

I hope this finds you well.

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