If the tape can't find it's mojo soon, it's gonna be a long day!
It's the bow to the wow
Creepin' and crawlin'
We're chillin with critters
And Snoop Tony Tone
(Snoop Doggy Dogg)
It's SushiWednesday in Minyanville and the incomparable Tony Dwyer has joined our merry Menagerie for some fresh fish and lively chat. It's always a pleasure to see my good friend and, as we settle down for a proteinfest, I want to "officially" thank him for all his efforts on this site. You're a good dude, Tony, and a good friend.
I've been making my calls around the street and, as you might expect, there's two very distinct camps out there. The trading community was clearly playing for a breakout and when it failed to materialize, they were "caught." Now, as the weak longs get shaken out, we're seeing some new shorts being initiated. Not enough to spark my contra "inkling," but worth noting nonetheless.
It appears as if we're in the midst of filling the gap in the S&P (910) but, from there, it becomes a bit dicier. I can't help but feel an odd sense of vuja de as we start to discuss these levels--it's like we've been here before, but nobody seems to care! Depending on who you ask, this is either a healthy consolidation or a rollover. Heck, we've even got the Sammy camp starting to get loud!
With complacency still baked into the tape and the longer term stochastics are just now giving sell signals, the natural question is begged: has the tide turned? I have a hard time believing that the bulls won't make a stand (at a point)--particularly if the forthcoming earnings have any glimmer of hope. My question remains one of timing and, as such, it becomes increasingly important to identify a frame with which to view the market (cycle, phase, trend, nuance).
My natural inclination is to identify a level where I'm "stopped out" of one of my metaphorical legs. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't sweatin' it out a bit when the Minx was tickling the breakouts but, as we always say, the toughest fades are the best fades. Still, discipline trumps conviction and I'm actively weighing my next move. So you know.
I'm going to jump and spend some time with ol' Svelty, so lemme wrap up this post. I got the prototypes on the action figures today and...WOW! It's amazing to me that after all this time, these critters have jumped from my head to my desk. Who says dreams don't come true?
I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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