Hey Rhonda--Tony's taken!
Alright, it's quite clear that the Minx is in one of her moods today! Almost everybody and their sister expected the first move to be higher and, naturally, the Jedi mind trick was to the downside. The financials (watch BAC and FNM) and the semis (INTC and KLAC) once again told the early tale and, as it stands, they're grasping for traction.
A quick check of the morning breadth reeks of halitosis as losers are spanking winners better than 2:1. As Tony just said on CNNfn, a compelling argument can be made for both camps and, by extension, the same situation exists for the daily action. The bears have their bullets (technicals, anthrax, war, complacency) and the bulls have their ammo too (momentum, looming break outs, "solid" earnings). Chose your poison but stay tight, cookie--it's trippy out there!
I currently have two legs in the bear costume (50% conviction on the short side) and, as the aggregate tape is (marginally) lower than where I initiated my posture, I have a decision to make. My feel on the direction remains unwavered...what I'm struggling with is the timing. In other words, if I sense the potential for a blow off before a break down, do I want to have both legs in fur?
I'm weighing whether it's prudent to place an upside stop on one appendage (leaving one) but, as it stands, I'm gonna sit tight. My stochastics have given firm sell signals in the S&P, NDX, DJIA, BKX (banks) and XBD (brokers) and, while they're surely not timing instruments, I am going to count to 100 (backwards by primes) and take a look. Also, pull up a five day chart of the S&P and you'll see how important the 922 zone is (support). If we break that level, some technical bulls will get shaken out.
Deep breaths, my friends...the day has only begun. If you'd like to pepper your flickering ticks with a few smiles and good information, tune that dial towards CNNfn right now. Snoop Tone and the incredibly minxy Rhonda Schaffler have some serious financial mojo working! Hey Tone--bring her up for sushi!
I'll be back.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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