Watch those banks, baby--they flirt more than Daisy does!
There's battle lines being drawn
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong
Young people speaking their minds
Getting so much resistance from behind
Alright, cookiepuss, I know the last three sessions have been paint dry city but it's time to shake it off and make some proactive decisions. The Intel news after the close will surely shake up the mojo and, as of 4pm, you're going to have to sleep with your positions. Choose wisely, as there will be no looking back.
Hoofy and Boo both have legitimate reasons for their current posture but, metaphorical imagery aside, you've got to make choices that are consistent with your views. We know the bull case (underinvested funds, looming breakouts, momentum, wall of worry) and we know the bear case (massive complacency, stochastic sell signals, reality)...now we just have to climb inside the head of the Minx!
Lest we forget, there are situations other than Intel's earnings that may impact tomorrow's tape. Beeks will swing by Minyanville for breakfast and to drop off the Producer Price Index (exp..3%, ex food/energy .1%), the Empire Manufacturing report (exp. 13), and business inventories (exp .1%). In addition, that goofy beige book will be released tomorrow afternoon (that always sneaks up, doesn't it?)
Consistent with our earlier discussion, I'm going to stick with both legs in my metaphorical bear costume (50% conviction on the short side). With that said, it's entirely possible that the tape needs to suck in the last bear standing (via a breakout) before rewarding the ursine. As such, and with vols as low as they are, I continue to feel that defined risk downside paper (read: options) is an intelligent vehicle. That way, if we do scoot higher before we trade lower (pop and drop), you've got the ability to use price to your advantage without losing your (remaining) hair.
Either way, know that you're not mandated to trade every day so exercise judgment when committing your hard earned capital. The weeding out process will continue on Wall Street (and beyond) so ask yourself some honest questions regarding your perceived edge. With a little luck and a lot of discipline, we'll find our way to better times and easier tapes--and I want to see each and every Minyan there.
Good luck and fare ye well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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