!This morning I wrote about the trading range in the market as defined by the S&P 500. This chart shows that no matter how wide the range you are using, the market is now at the upper end of that range. Please note that because the SPX is at the upper end of the range, it doesn't necessarily mean it must go down. The market could go sideways or keep going higher.
My main point, is that the combination of the near-term overbought condition, intermediate-term loss of momentum, fundamental backdrop, geo-political framework and proximity of the SPX to the upper end of the trading range suggest that aggressive buying, absent a high volume break out of the range, may not make sense. If the market does breakout, missing a little upside to provide evidence, may not make much difference.
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