Freaky Friday Potpourri
It's been a long week but we've got three days to rest our weary bones.
"The storyteller makes no choice, soon you will not hear his voice. His job is to shed light and not to master."
The Grateful Dead
And just like that, another week of flickering freak is ready to exhale. As trader players ready for playoff football, the critters are trying to end the week on solid footing. The mood on the Street is upbeat, due in equal part to the green screens and the upcoming three day weekend. With earnings season on deck, the fundamental metric will soon take center stage. Until it does, the structural metric and psychology will jockey for top tier status.
A snapshot of today's action finds a lower dollar, which is pimpin' the heretofore beaten down energy and metal sectors. IF you believe that the greenback has further legs, we can intelligently opine that asset classes, be them equities or commodities, still have some downside drippage. For my part, I'm balancing the desire to hold some of these names (as a function of a somewhat elongated horizon) with the knowledge that discipline is King and rolling stops are my friend (particularly under CRB 293).
I'm still there with my Weatherford upside (defined risk) calls and I continue to trade around GoldenStar (GSS) as a core gold holding. There are others, natch, but those are two names we've highlighted on the Buzz and I wanted to circle back and circle up.
Some other Random Thoughts…
- Is the hedge fund liquidation in crude creating an opportunity for the spry and nimble? I think so, particularly since there is no geopolitical risk priced into
Texas tea. Why should there be some geopolitical risk premium? The obvious, such as Iraq, and the emerging, such as growing tensions over the U.S raid on the Iranian consulate. This isn't a comment on Iran, the raid or Russia. It's a comment on crude, and the opportunity therein. Yes, there is risk to that trade. Further deflationary pressures, the technical break in the CRB and forced selling (I hate invisible catalysts). But if you've got discipline and patience, it's fuel for thought.
- Look at me, I'm AMD, down a dime for all to see. Man, when the bloom comes off the rose, the bloom really comes off the rose! After a bovine tone at AMD's mid-quarter update (and pushing out earnings a few days ago), this retro-chip is taking it on the chin. Hey, what's 10% between friends? Watch Intel (INTC) on the heels of this squeal. This four letter freak has been under accumulation (the stock, as well as a slug of those January 22.5 calls) and we know that there's a gap above $22.85 that would make Michael Strahan blush.
- BofA is positive on the tower stocks today. My buddy, Jeff Saut of Raymond James--who is indeed as good as it gets--has liked these stocks for quite some time.
Watch American Tower (AMT) in particular, which broke out above $38, as that's likely a level if it retests. Houston , we have lift-off! Team Minyan will be in Houston next Wednesday to huddle with our friends at TD Ameritrade. It's a quick two day turnaround as I'll be delivering the keynote at their APEX live event.
- How long can ketchup 'stay' in those little plastic pouches? I mean, really, it's inconceivable!
- I've now heard from four separate sources that Apple should be bought in the low $90's. That prolly means one of two things. Either it doesn't get there or it blows right through there.
- S&P 1432, DRG 350 and TRAN 4700 are all important technical levels to keep on ye radar.
- There's some Nationalization-type chatter coming out of Bolivia. Mining Vice-Minister Ichazu said he aims to develop dines through the state mining company.
- "When are you going to learn? Last time you disrespected the Gators, you lost our bet on the Final Four and National Championship. Do you have to learn another lesson? Here's the wager: $250 to Ruby Peck Foundation from me if OSU wins the National Championship. If the Gators win, you apologize on the site and vow to never disrespect the Gators again and you include one random thought per day for 10 straight trading days giving some praise of the University of Florida." Minyan Charlie Poe
I'm Sorry! I vow never to disrespect the Gators again!
- It's been a long week but we've got three days to rest our weary bones. Take the time to be good to yourself, Minyans, for it has to start within. I wish you all a most profitable journey towards the closing bell and a mindful, easy respite from the flickering ticks.
- Fare ye well!
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