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Random Thoughts

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Be careful, sand is not very tasty!

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  • Levels to keep in the back of your keppe include S&P 1275, NDX 1705 and XBD 200 (acne retest), BKX 106 (stubbornly sticky resistance), GE $35 and IBM $81 (if and when) and Toddo 200 (as my 'healthy lifestyle' new year's resolution inverts).

  • I was dining at Raoul's with Queen V, Television and Television's JeffMacke last night and chatted with a buddy who just had a kid. We were talking investments and, as he and I have a long history, he asked me if I had any decent ideas. "If it's for your kid (long-term)," I offered, "I would stick with energy and metals. I would start with 30% exposure (given the spirited sprint they've enjoyed) and leave plenty of powder dry. If the MidEast heats up--and it seems Iran is doing what it can to provoke fresh conflict--these two sectors will likely be the only green on the screen when we walk into work the next day. And if not, you've still got some secular winds at your back and diversified your dollar holdings a bit." He asked me if I had any other thoughts and I offered "if you think the tape has some legs (and I would put a 30% probability on that), SunMicro (SUNW) could emerge as a "cheap Google (GOOG) play." These thoughts are nothing new to ye faithful, I know, but they're swirling around my keppe so I wanted to share the vibe.

  • There's hope for Boo yet!

  • Hoofy has a steadfast view on why the tape should rally. Boo has equally compelling thoughts on why the market should fail. The truth lies somewhere in the middle and I'll maintain that lessons reside in the "friction" that exists between the two disparate stances. That, my friends, is what we strive for in the 'Ville--to see both sides of the trade and arm ye faithful with the information necessary to make better and more informed decisions.

  • Thursday breadth is hanging with Mr. Drooper (2:1 negative)

  • The "have nots" have a tough road to hoe.

  • Keep an eye on JP Morgan (JPM) in the face of this morning's downgrade by Piper Jaffray (Piper? I don't even...). The storied piggy is 10% of the BKX which, as we know, is entrenched in a hard-fought battle at a technical inflection.

  • Not very mice.

  • We saw size call buying in Qualcomm (QCOM) yesterday. The stock is up 13% YTD and earnings expectations are pretty lofty.

  • "It always bothers me when the small cap homeland security space gets heated up...makes you wonder. So you know, I'm involved in IDNX, MACE, ICTS, ISON" Minyan Ron

  • "In the absence of water, people are so thirsty they drink the sand." They don't drink the sand because they're thirsty, they drink the sand because they don't know the difference.

  • We "see" the agenda on the money supply front. I wonder if that makes it more (or less) egregious if we miss the potential rally?

  • Amgen (AMGN) is flirting with a fresh breakdown (below December lows).

  • "Anyone who's interested in possibly spurious ratios should take a look at NDX divided by SPX. At 1.36 as I type, it's at the top of the range we've seen over the past couple of years. To save you some time, the last times it's been at this level were 11/06/03, 01/12/04 and 12/06/04, none of which were particularly happy times for the NDX going forward, at least in the short-term. This ratio can get very skewed when we enter different market environments, so placing any weight on it now means we expect the type of market we've seen over the past few years to continue. If so, we could be in store for a little mean-reversion as the SPX catches up to the NDX (or falls less)." -- Jason Goepfert on yesterday's Buzz (2:28)

  • "Only sailors use condoms baby!"

  • Keep half an eye on the volatility sisters (VXO, VXN, QQV) as they're all 3-4% higher.

  • We had our Ruby Peck Foundation Board meeting last night and I wanted to take a moment to thank everyone for their continued support of this most worthy cause. We did some great things for the kids in 2005 and we've got big plans for 2006.

  • Good luck today, Minyans.


    R.P.
Position in SUNW, JPM
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