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Minyan Mailbag - BKX



Note: Our goal in Minyanville is to remove intimidation from the financial markets and encourage an interactive dialogue among the Minyanship. We share this next discussion with that very intent.


Check out the PnF support level at BKX 101. Given TRAN breakdown, SOX breakdown, RMS breakdown, this looks like Hoofy's best hope for a turnaround. I've mentioned that I believe financials will lag the market breakdown because they are key component of (what I believe is) misplaced optimism. When (IF) they break, however, it is very possible that the point of recognition we've all been waiting for will accelerate rapidly, and this thesis I believe fits with the PnF indicators as well as (I think) Scott's analysis of potential wave III move down.

Kevin Depew


After putting in a new peak in a 5th wave off the 2002 lows, this index has just put in a "5" wave move down on the hourly suggesting at least another similar decline (3.5%) or greater once this impulsive pattern down from the 12/23 peaks bounces up in a correction from around current levels. For now all the pieces are in place for a completed pattern off the 2002 lows and the hourly trend is decidedly down. We would get one more new peak AFTER an ABC decline (the A of which is now completing) but that's a low probability. Better interp is that this index like the others is finished with its all-time bull market and that much lower numbers lie ahead in 05, though just my opinion and not advice.


No positions in stocks mentioned.

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