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Random Thoughts


Check out the acne in the semi space!


  • A combination of technology troubles, piled up paperwork and earnings previews have made for a moody Monday morning. Grrr...

  • The semiconductors are above the breakout we've been monitoring for a week. The bogie, obviously, is Intel's (INTC:NASD) report tomorrow. While there's been some chatter that rev's might be light, there are similar stories floating around that they'll raise capital expenditures (benefiting the semicaps). Neither is confirmed (obviously), but that's what's making the rounds.

  • Regardless, the jiggy semis are cause for pause if you're fawning fur.

  • Clemens signs with Houston. Not a shocker, I suppose, as he and Pettitte are buddies and he wants to finish up his career in his home state. True story--I had dinner with him this weekend and joked that he still had a lot of life in his arm. He just smiled. More about that dinner later--it was pretty insane and included the greatest players in sporting history. All for charity, of course, but amazing nonetheless.

  • Franklin Raines is another of those CEO's whose legacy will offer a bitter pill.

  • Liquidity driven rallies are tough to measure. Everyone "buys in" because the action is fantastic and believes they'll see problems in plenty of time.

  • I'm not seeing much in Flow's Diner today and was told that "conventional" funds are noticeable in their absence.

  • Never let a petty dispute harm a great friendship.

  • If you're trading market instruments (read: SPY or QQQ), you're missing the action in the underlying stocks. For a few years, stocks traded as a monolithic vehicle. That changed in 2003 and has thus far continued.

  • Watch BTK 500 as an inflection point. It was resistance for the better part of 2003.

  • If you're overwhelmed, look at each task individually rather than your collective mission.

  • Why is it that risk is always discussed when the market is lower and reward is the constant focus when the screens are green?

  • I walked up to John Elway on Saturday and said "I'm a die hard Raider fan but I'll still shake your hand." He wasn't that amused.

  • The economic calendar is quiet until Thursday.

  • Breadth remains 3:2 positive.

  • Not the most exciting Random Thoughts, I know, but roll with the punches.

  • Why do they call them "honor" bars?

  • Yes, The Da Vinci Code has become a crowded long. It's still one of the best books I've ever read.

  • Be wary of a dull market.

  • The piggy banks are noticeable in their non-participation. I continue to key on Citigroup (C:NYSE) as a tell for that complex.

  • Toddo's "surprise" for 2004 downside catalysts: crisis of confidence in the Bush administration and/or Elmer.

  • stag·fla·tion (noun). Sluggish economic growth coupled with a high rate of inflation and unemployment

position in FNM

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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