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Random Thoughts

By

We're halfway there, Minyans. Hope this finds you with some jingle in the jeans.

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  • The greatest tribute you can pay to a loved one who passed is to live your life in a manner consistent with what he or she would have wanted.

  • I wouldn't mind being a fly on this wall.

  • Horror Show!

  • Citigroup (C) $48-$50, General Electric (GE) $35 and IBM $81 are all levels on my radar.

  • "The width of the DJIA's 11-month base is 800 points. The breakout, which is occurring here, counts to a technical target of 11800; a new all-time high. If you're looking for more evidence as to how the market's behaving here check this out -
    • Last Friday, January 6, the Russell 2000 broke out of a 5-month base.
    • On Monday, January 9, the Merrill Lynch Nanotech Index broke out of a more than 9-month base.
    • Last Friday, January 6, the Russell Microcap Index broke out of a 6-month base.
    • The above three items show small caps are ahead of big caps (S&P 600 +5.3% ytd vs S&P 500 +3.32%).
    • The Nasdaq Biotech Index is close to moving above the April 2004 high and completing a 30-month base!
    • The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index just broke out of a 12-month base.

      Could this action represent the highs for the year? Shoot, anything can happen. But these patterns are not often associated with market failures."
      -- John (if it ain't) Roque (don't fix it) of Natexis Bleichroeder

  • Just in time for the volatility uptick!

  • Professor Herb Greenberg of MarketWatch was on the tube (and the Buzz) affixing a green flag on EV3 (EVVV).

  • If enough folks are staring at a technical level, chances are it self-fulfills. But, as with the other metrics viewed in isolation, there are inherent flaws to that approach. That's why I use 'em as a framework rather than a blind catalyst.

  • While sitting at your desk, lift your right foot off the floor and make clockwise circles. Now, while doing this, draw the number "6" in the air with your right hand. Your foot will change direction and there's nothing you can do about it!

  • CRB 335 is a rather important support level for the commodity complex.

  • Not so lucky.

  • Remember that "big by big" fiscal literacy guy I mentioned in yesterday's Randoms? He told me that Visa and Mastercard were conspicuously absent on the sponsorship front. Shocker, eh?

  • In Shakespeare's time, mattresses were secured on bed frames by ropes. When you pulled on the ropes the mattress tightened, making the bed firmer to sleep on. Hence the phrase......... "goodnight, sleep tight."

  • Wanna learn more about options and gamma? Professor Succo scribed a six-part series way back when. It's the perfect primer.

  • While the semis and brokers remain sticky green, the rest of the tape is losing steam. Market internals just slipped and we're finding three red for every two ahead.

  • Rocket man? Personally, I'm with Tickles--I wanna see how "they" react at S&P 1275 and NDX 1705.

  • Charlotte's Head.

  • John and I were enjoying an early Succofest last night at a local upscale haunt. The manager, a friend of mine, started to discuss his savings and how he intended to "invest" it in real estate. The banter that followed was interesting and amicable, featuring such nuggets as
    • Capital preservation is a necessary precursor to wealth accumulation.
    • Wealth accumulation is a necessary precursor to speculation.
    • Only speculate with what you can afford to lose.
    • Only speculate if you perceive a 3:1 payout (once taxes and risk are factored in).
    • For every fresh buyer, there is an older (wealthier) seller.

R.P.

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