Fare ye well!
I run into Charlie Fog
Blacked my eye and he kicked my dog,
My doggie turned to me and he said
Let's head back to Tennessee Jed.
The ursine soiree is now underway as Boo takes a sniff of the crimson bouquet. With yesterday's quasi-sorta-kinda-traction a distant memory, the pain trade today has been slow and steady distribution. The bulls are betting that the path of maximum frustration continues to confound and, just as the false acne could clear out the doubters yesterday, perhaps a downside head-fake is par for today's course. One thing for certain, with so many traders staring at the same levels, they're starting to produce more pain than gain.
I've always used charts as a framework and backdrop for referral, assimilating the other primary metrics (fundies, structural, psychology) with hopes of attaining a critical quack count. It's not a perfect solution (nothing is) and requires dynamic adaptation in an ever-changing world. The bovine opine that "nothing has changed" from a few weeks ago and view that as an opportunity. I would offer that there is always a bull case and a bear case in play (at the same time) and the only thing that matters is the price action.
The obvious focus tonight is the Mother Chip (INTC:NASD) and the report has a bit of meat to it on the heels of Advanced Micro (AMD:NYSE). The analyst community seems assured that the flash memory issues are company specific and an upbeat assessment from Intel will go a long way in that regard. I don't have an edge on this one but have noted the dandruff on the SOX chart and the $22.25 level for the stock. I will also offer that the potential for gap risk is greater when emotions are revved up as they are now.
I've caught myself wanting to get bullish at times during the day but have bit my lip on two fronts. First, in the near-term, the breadth has been simply abysmal and that is the single best intraday tell. From a broader perspective, the continued complacency (VXO) has a Keyser Soze quality to it as we've been conditioned to believe that it no longer matters. Remember, Minyans, there are "causes" and "effects" to the market and we've never claimed that the landscape is the former. If the wheels start to shake on the wagon, however, this dynamic can move to the forefront of concern.
I've gotta jump as Kevin and I have a mongo-important midtown mindmeld. Old school Minyans might have picked up that there are "things" going on behind the scenes and they would be correct in that assumption. Suffice to say that it's "all good" and we will soon share the news with ye faithful. In the meantime--and the rest of this week--I'll be busy as a beaver dotting the "I's" and crossing the "T's." Thanks in advance for your understanding and the very best of luck as you wade through the muck.
Have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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