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Random Thoughts

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...if you buy 'below the bid,' it'll take a lot longer for the offer to arrive.

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  • "As of 7:45 last night, the Captain gave me the "official lecture and speech," shook my hand, and told me "congratulations, you are now a fourth." This means I completed all academy classes, CPR, blood borne, and FF1 training, and passed the in-station "fourth" test. I am now officially a full qualified fire fighter at the national level (and by definition Baltimore County level) and I now count as member of a four person crew for responses. It's done. HOOYAH. Ok, well, I guess it's not the marines." Adam Harrison (that would be my brother).

  • One of our better coverage guys is saying that, speaking with his international desk, everyone seems to be blaming everyone else for this morning's crimson. The main culprit, they opine (and something we've been monitoring in the 'Ville), is hedge fund selling as a function of commodity market losses.

  • We've seen very little in the way of stateside hedging since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, across the pond, there's been fair demand for downside puts. Food for thought.

  • Why did Inspector Kemp just pop into my keppe? "A riot is an ungly thing... undt, I tink, that it is chust about time ve had vun!"

  • The dollar, one of our central 'contra-tells' is up 35 bips as we hike across the Hump while our emerging market proxies (EEM -1%, TRF -3%, Brazil -1%) confirm the squirm.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag

    Toddo,

    I know you are not a real estate expert and that housing markets are regional with pockets of overvaluation, extreme overvaluation, moderate overvaluation, etc. As someone that cares, what do you think about buying a house in the next 12 months? I was burned so badly in 2000 and even with the funds saved we're still down as a household about 40 percent from the top of the 2000 stock market lunacy. I don't want to buy into the end of a housing bubble that has gone on for a long time. Given the limited information that you have garnered above what are your thoughts?

    Thank you,

    Minyan Dave.

    MD-

    A few thoughts. First, regardless of what happens in housing, you are not buying a home to sell it. So, it's different than a pure stock play on a few levels. A home is, in many ways, psychic income and if you love where you live, the 'retail value' of the house is a factor, not 'the' factor.

    With that said, I do believe real estate, on the aggregate, has downside as a function of the preceding froth. The 'where, when and why' remain to be seen and, as you mused, there will be both pockets of pain and protection. My suggestion (not advice) is to keep your eyes peeled for bargains-panic sellers, if you will-that need to get out at any price. They're popping up with increased frequency.

    As with stocks, if you buy 'below the bid,' it'll take a lot longer for the offer to arrive.

    Hope this helps my friend.

    Best always,
    Toddo

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey shows a minuscule increase in bullish sentiment to 55.4% from 55.3% prior and a slight drop in bearish sentiment to 20.7% from 21.3% last week. Those expecting a correction rose to 23.9% from 23.4% prior.

  • Keep an eye on S&P 1400. That's a pivotal point for the Matador Crowd and alotta stops are surely resting on the other side of that ride (if and when).

  • The longer the CRB churns under 293, in my view, the higher the odds are that the S&P will crack 1400.

  • A few--ok, alotta--Minyans pinged to opine that this is the first time I've ever gone a certain somewhere in my opening missive. True dat, but you'll notice that the effort was sans acrimony. That's our way in the 'Ville.

  • And just like that, the VXO (+5%) is about to celebrate its Bar Mitzvah.

  • "When are you going to learn? Last time you disrespected the Gators, you lost our bet on the Final Four and National Championship. Do you have to learn another lesson? Here's the wager: $250 to Ruby Peck Foundation from me if OSU wins the National Championship If the Gators win, you apologize on the site and vow to never disrespect the Gators again and you include one random thought per day for 10 straight trading days giving some praise of the University of Florida." Minyan Charlie Poe

    I'm Sorry! I vow never to disrespect the Gators again!


R.P.

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