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A bet is a bet!


Gold $419 Silver $6.42 Monday 10 January, Midnight Sydney

G'day. What sort of a start to the year is this? You grab a week at the beach with the kids and everything gets all skewiff. The Jets win a playoff game! In overtime!! Gold and silver are some 10% lower. The "strong" dollar is back - Snow says so! What a great load of garbage! The Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) is struggling at the double-donny(200) and another 10% lower will see a return of the Streaker, down Walker St here in North Sydney. A bet is a bet.

I've done a quick little check against my list of why, and why not, to own gold and silver and funnily enough, nuthin's changed at all. I do know that I can comfortably stand here with my pants around my ankles and say that physical gold won't trade below US$400 again this decade. I even bought some gold sovereigns, contrary to my own counsel, over the last couple of days, but more on that later.

Anyway, gold and silver took a late year drubbing, falling through my support levels around $430 and $6.65, but looking particularly solid in their respective physical markets. Technically they look awful particularly silver. My "gut feel" was way off mark just before the New Year looking for $7.20. I still am very comfy buying physical silver anywhere down here (not advice), but I said that last week at $6.90. Don't forget the premiums charged for you to take delivery.

Gold is back nudging some longer dated moving averages and I see that India and the rest of Asia hasn't dropped off its appetite for the metals over the holiday period. I am still firmly of the belief that this is a paper-driven price move and that the physical market will again assert its authority resulting in prices around $440 in short space of time. I also want to check out some of the other indicators we use, before we get too specific about prices. Would be worried if we see south of $412 and happy for a weekly close back above $428. Opinion only, as usual.

Sorry but I've had a tech glitch here for the last few hours and it's cost me all of today's piece bar the first two paragraphs. Therefore a quick summary only sorry. More on the sovereign purchases, the beach house with the kids, and, New Years eve tomorrow.


position in gold, silver

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