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Rough Start


How about a five day Report Card for the Nasdaq Composite and SPX?


The first five days of 2005 were anything but normal. In the charts below, I've highlighted the infrequency of the following: (1) Nasdaq Composite starts any month with five consecutive lower closes, (2) on the fifth trading day of any year, the Nasdaq Composite is -3.9% or worse, and (3) over the same period, the SPX is -2%.

Admittedly, the results are somewhat contradictory. And their true significance is questionable as the number of days studied clearly affects the results. However, it's worth highlighting the rarity of the first week's action. Past performance does not indicate future results, but the studies suggest a higher close for the Nasdaq this week and a lower close for the SPX this quarter.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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