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The Lead-Lag Report: Markets Hesitate

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Market internals appear to be hesitating following bullish behavior post QE3. More time is needed, but for the first time in several months signs of deterioration are occurring.

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Small-Caps (NYSEARCA:SLY) – Rolling Over?


Comments: Small-caps are hesitating here, but I maintain leadership is more likely given very recent performance. More time is needed to confirm a reversal of trend, but should this roll over it likely means money is repositioning into emerging economies.

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (NYSEARCA:TIP) – Spike Reverses?



Comments: The TIP/IEF price ratio is one way of seeing if inflation expectations are rising or falling within the bond market. When the ratio is trending higher, it means bets are occurring on rising prices ahead. TIPS went utterly wild following the Fed's QE3 announcement, as inflation expectations surged. However, it appears initial enthusiasm has died down. Time is needed to see which way this now goes.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Pension Partners, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

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