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Minyanville's T3 Daily Recap: Trade What You See, Not What You Think


Intel, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs were all active today.

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We came in today with futures down a bit, but support 1 held within about the first 15 minutes and we pushed past one pivot to close higher. Looking at the daily chart of the SPY, as a technician, there's a lot to like. Unlike the hedge funds blowing up as they short the stock market and go long gold, tactical traders have been able to make money by following the patterns in the charts. First, we saw the head and shoulders pattern and a sustained downtrend, and recently we've been in an ascending channel. Today, those two patterns collided, and we didn't know where we were going to end, but we managed to close higher.

If you look at Intel (INTC), the stock failed a breakout back in April and then broke an uptrend a short while later. Those were your two sell signals. Looking at the fundamentals, everyone said that you should sell the stock on earnings, but the poor guidance and information had already been priced in. As a technician, the headlines would have read, "Buy here." And today, we saw the stock close higher.

VMware (VMW) has been another battered and bruise stock. It even closed lower after a previous positive earnings report because the information was already priced in. Today, however, it gapped up $5 and closed even higher.

Wynn (WYNN) wasn't as lucky today. If it breaks below its current levels, it could go lower.

One of the leading groups today were the energy stocks, especially oil stocks. Halliburton (HAL) had a nice day with a large range bar. A lot of people on the site made some money there. Schlumberger Limited (SLB) was also a solid gain today for those who got in. The ag sector had another good day today as well. CF Industries (CF) and Monsanto (MON) both managed to make new highs.

On the other end of the spectrum, the housing sector sold off a bit today. Toll Brothers (TOL) and Lennar (LEN) both sold off today. They don't look particularly bad yet, but you should be careful trading those stocks in the days to come.

Goldman Sachs (GS) has been a sell since its earnings. If it continues to drop, the banks could start to see some real pressure. JPMorgan (JPM) hasn't really done anything since its earnings report, either. Keep an eye on this sector in the next few days.

At this point, it's hard to work against the market. Don't be a stubborn short trying to fight the market.

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Scott Redler is long AAPL and short SPY.
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