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Minyanville's T3 Morning Market Call: Can Market Gap-and-Go After Fiscal Cliff Deal?


Equity markets are far from dead and continue to provide opportunities for those who learn how to navigate them.

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Markets got beat up during the last week as everyone obsessed about the fiscal cliff. On Monday morning, it made some sense to cover some shorts as the S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) held the 200-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement and also traded back above 1401 pivot for a "Red Dog Reversal"/outside day! The markets grinded higher all day even with the rhetoric from Washington. Putting on some positions or holding existing ones made some sense based on the technical action. (See my predictions for 2013.)

Markets closed strong even though we didn't have definitive resolution. The market was giving Washington a pass or "bungee cord" for a few extra days. Yesterday everyone started to think that the bill might not pass the House vote, and then it did in the final hours.

So in about 48 hours, the S&P went from pre-market lows of about 1390ish to where we are opening around 1440-1445. At this point, it's probably not the best idea to jump in during the first 30 minutes. We need to see if this will be a "gap-and-go."

The next big technical level to watch is 1443-1448. A close above that in coming sessions could open the door for a move back to 1474 highs in the coming month or so. Decent support stands at 1426-1430 they try to "sell the news" a bit.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) held the danger zone of $501-505.50 during the last week of the year and then ignited Monday, giving us a nice entry around $515-$520 as it cleared its micro descending channel. This morning, it's opening near $545. It will be interesting to see if it can hold up and continue to improve. Some decent resistance sits at $548-555, and the 50-day moving average is now at $561. I will measure to see its commitment into the New Year. Trim some and hold some.

Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) lagged a bit Monday, but weren't as depressed as AAPL to begin with. We need to see if they build and hold today's gains.

Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) continues to trend higher. We talked about the micro channel trigger at $16.60ish. Now the intermediate channel seems to be resolving and could take it to $23-25 this year.

eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) is still holding up but is choppy. It did a nice "Red Dog Reversal" on Monday at the $48.67 pivot.

Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) has been sloppy but is still holding higher. It needs to get above and close above $28-28.70 to get more macro attention. It was a nice trade from $23.75ish and now it would be nice to see it "get going." Merrill Lynch upgraded it this morning.

LinkedIn (NASDAQ:LNKD) has been moving up stealthily lately. Holding above $112-116 could keep this one on track to make new highs this year.

Banks have been the place to be.

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) has been the focus multiple times during the past few months. It might hit $12 today. I would trim some but hold some in the drawer as this can see higher prices this year. I believe $15-16 could be in the cards.

JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) also looks good. The pivot to watch is $44.54.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) was a nice target for us around $120, now it needs to clear and hold above $129.72 for more momentum.

Metals felt like they capitulated a bit last week on the "Paulson news." Gold (NYSE:GLD) put a nice pivot low in at the $158.50 support and then closed above $162. Iit's getting some follow-through today. Next resistance is around $164ish.

The ags look okay. Monsanto (NYSE:MON) has been best in breed of late.

Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) chart looks good and could have a decent 2013. The next trigger is to clear and hold is $57.

CF Industries (NYSE:CF) hasn't acted that well lately, but a close above $207 would be constructive.

Ford (NYSE:F) and General Motors (NYSE:GM) had explosive moves recently, but I wouldn't chase. Toyota (NYSE:TM) is a bit extended here, but can continue higher in my opinion. The weekly and monthly charts look good.

Equity markets are far from dead and continue to provide opportunities for those who learn how to navigate them. I'm sure the media will now start obsessing about the debt ceiling as it gets closer. When the market is overbought enough, it will start to care. Let's hope we do get real spending cuts as the Republicans did their part and agreed to raise some revenue with taxes on the wealthy.

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Scott Redler is long AAPL, FB, BAC, YHOO.
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