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Trading Radar: Early February Data to Rule Price Action
Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.
Michael Sedacca    

US markets opened the week continuing where they left off last Friday; the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) tacked on another 3.5% of gains. In the next week, US markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents' Day, and Friday is the month's options expiration date.

Following less-than-stellar economic data for the month of January, investors will turn their eyes to advance data for February. The first piece of information we saw was the University of Michigan/Reuters consumer confidence index on Friday, which remained unchanged in February at 81.2. We'll begin to see February manufacturing surveys trickle out next week, starting with the New York region on Tuesday morning.

The first piece of January homebuilding data, housing starts, and building permits are scheduled to be reported next Wednesday morning. Because of the extreme weather during the month, industrial production and retail sales data have been very weak, and it would not be surprising to see these figures drop significantly. Other economic reports for the week include January consumer and producer price indices.

China has been an oft-discussed topic lately and preliminary February data is scheduled to be reported there, too. The HSBC/Markit flash manufacturing index is scheduled to be reported Wednesday night and will be closely watched. In Japan, preliminary fourth-quarter GDP will be released on Monday, and the Bank of Japan will release its targeted expansion for the monetary base in 2014. Because many investors are long Japanese equities and have pulled back lately, both of these will weigh heavily on stocks in Japan, and by extension in the US. The UK ILO unemployment rate will be reported on Wednesday. The Bank of England said recently that it did not view its 7% unemployment threshold as a definite trigger to begin raising rates, this data point may be a non-event.

Even though the majority of US companies have reported earnings up to this point, there is still a smattering of notable companies reporting next week, including Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT). Other reports include Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), DirectTV (NASDAQ:DTV), and Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR).

Monday, February 17

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

US markets closed for Presidents Day holiday
11:00 Fed to purchase $1b-$1.5b bonds in 23 to 30-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY GDP (4Q preliminary)
JPY 2014 Monetary Base Target
04:30 JPY Industrial Production

Earnings

No reports

Tuesday, February 18

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Empire Manufacturing - expected 9, prior 12.51
09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows - exp $30B, prior -$29.3B
09:00 Total Net TIC Flows - prior -$16.6B
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index - exp 56, prior 56
11:00 Fed to purchase $3.75b-$4.5b notes in 4 to 5-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $30b 3-month, $30b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

07:00 EUR EU Car Registrations
09:30 GBP CPI
10:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey

Earnings

Before:
Duke Energy (DUK)
Medtronic (MDT)
Coca-Cola (KO)

After:
Panera Bread (PNRA)
Flowserve (FLS)
CF Industries (CF)

Wednesday, February 19

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 PPI Final Demand YoY (new version of PPI) - expected 1.2%, prior 1.1%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY - exp 1.4%, prior 1.1%
08:30 Housing Starts - exp 950K, prior 999K
08:30 Building Permits - exp 977K, prior 986K
2:00 FOMC Minutes
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.25b notes in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills

Fedspeak

12:15pm Lockhart speaks on economy in Georgia
1:00pm Bullard speaks in Washington
7:00pm Williams speaks on economy in NY

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index
09:30 GBP BoE Minutes
09:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate

Earnings

Before:
MGM Resorts (MGM)
Six Flags Entertainment (SIX)
Carlyle Group (CG)
Devon Energy (DVN)

After:
Marriott (MAR)
Avis Budget (CAR)
HomeAway (AWAY)
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP)
Safeway (SWY)
Tesla (TSLA)
LifeLock (LOCK)

Thursday, February 20

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - expected 330K, prior 326K
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 3025K, prior 3056K
08:30 Consumer Price Index YoY - exp 1.6%, prior 1.5%
08:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY - exp 1.6%, prior 1.7%
08:58 Markit Preliminary US PMI - exp 53.6
10:00 Philly Fed - exp 8.5, prior 9.4
10:00 Leading Index - exp 0.4%, prior 0.1%
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.5b bonds in 23 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $9b 30yr TIPS (reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Japanese Investors Purchases of Foreign Bonds/Stocks
JPY Trade Balance
01:45 CNY HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
09:00 EUR Manufacturing & Services PMI (Feb preliminary)
15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Earnings

Before:
Walter Energy (WLT)
Wal-Mart (WMT)

After:
Nordstrom (JWN)
Priceline.com (PCLN)
Aruba Networks (ARUN)
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
Newmont Mining (NEM)
Express Scripts (EXPR)
Rocket Fuel (FUEL)
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)
DIRECTV (DTV)
Groupon (GRPN)

Friday, February 21

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

10:00 Existing Home Sales - expected 4.70M, prior 4.87M
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.25b bonds in 23 to 30-year range

Fedspeak

1:10pm Bullard speaks on economy in St Louis

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY BoJ Jan meeting minutes
09:30 GBP Retail Sales
09:30 GBP Govt Finances
13:30 CAD Retail Sales
13:30 CAD CPI

Earnings

Before:
Charter Communications (CHTR)
DISH Network (DISH)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

Follow the markets all day every day with a FREE 14 day trial to Buzz & Banter. Over 30 professional traders share their ideas in real-time. Learn more.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Trading Radar: Early February Data to Rule Price Action
Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.
Michael Sedacca    

US markets opened the week continuing where they left off last Friday; the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) tacked on another 3.5% of gains. In the next week, US markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents' Day, and Friday is the month's options expiration date.

Following less-than-stellar economic data for the month of January, investors will turn their eyes to advance data for February. The first piece of information we saw was the University of Michigan/Reuters consumer confidence index on Friday, which remained unchanged in February at 81.2. We'll begin to see February manufacturing surveys trickle out next week, starting with the New York region on Tuesday morning.

The first piece of January homebuilding data, housing starts, and building permits are scheduled to be reported next Wednesday morning. Because of the extreme weather during the month, industrial production and retail sales data have been very weak, and it would not be surprising to see these figures drop significantly. Other economic reports for the week include January consumer and producer price indices.

China has been an oft-discussed topic lately and preliminary February data is scheduled to be reported there, too. The HSBC/Markit flash manufacturing index is scheduled to be reported Wednesday night and will be closely watched. In Japan, preliminary fourth-quarter GDP will be released on Monday, and the Bank of Japan will release its targeted expansion for the monetary base in 2014. Because many investors are long Japanese equities and have pulled back lately, both of these will weigh heavily on stocks in Japan, and by extension in the US. The UK ILO unemployment rate will be reported on Wednesday. The Bank of England said recently that it did not view its 7% unemployment threshold as a definite trigger to begin raising rates, this data point may be a non-event.

Even though the majority of US companies have reported earnings up to this point, there is still a smattering of notable companies reporting next week, including Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT). Other reports include Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), DirectTV (NASDAQ:DTV), and Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR).

Monday, February 17

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

US markets closed for Presidents Day holiday
11:00 Fed to purchase $1b-$1.5b bonds in 23 to 30-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY GDP (4Q preliminary)
JPY 2014 Monetary Base Target
04:30 JPY Industrial Production

Earnings

No reports

Tuesday, February 18

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Empire Manufacturing - expected 9, prior 12.51
09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows - exp $30B, prior -$29.3B
09:00 Total Net TIC Flows - prior -$16.6B
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index - exp 56, prior 56
11:00 Fed to purchase $3.75b-$4.5b notes in 4 to 5-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $30b 3-month, $30b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

07:00 EUR EU Car Registrations
09:30 GBP CPI
10:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey

Earnings

Before:
Duke Energy (DUK)
Medtronic (MDT)
Coca-Cola (KO)

After:
Panera Bread (PNRA)
Flowserve (FLS)
CF Industries (CF)

Wednesday, February 19

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 PPI Final Demand YoY (new version of PPI) - expected 1.2%, prior 1.1%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY - exp 1.4%, prior 1.1%
08:30 Housing Starts - exp 950K, prior 999K
08:30 Building Permits - exp 977K, prior 986K
2:00 FOMC Minutes
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.25b notes in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills

Fedspeak

12:15pm Lockhart speaks on economy in Georgia
1:00pm Bullard speaks in Washington
7:00pm Williams speaks on economy in NY

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index
09:30 GBP BoE Minutes
09:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate

Earnings

Before:
MGM Resorts (MGM)
Six Flags Entertainment (SIX)
Carlyle Group (CG)
Devon Energy (DVN)

After:
Marriott (MAR)
Avis Budget (CAR)
HomeAway (AWAY)
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP)
Safeway (SWY)
Tesla (TSLA)
LifeLock (LOCK)

Thursday, February 20

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - expected 330K, prior 326K
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 3025K, prior 3056K
08:30 Consumer Price Index YoY - exp 1.6%, prior 1.5%
08:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY - exp 1.6%, prior 1.7%
08:58 Markit Preliminary US PMI - exp 53.6
10:00 Philly Fed - exp 8.5, prior 9.4
10:00 Leading Index - exp 0.4%, prior 0.1%
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.5b bonds in 23 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $9b 30yr TIPS (reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Japanese Investors Purchases of Foreign Bonds/Stocks
JPY Trade Balance
01:45 CNY HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
09:00 EUR Manufacturing & Services PMI (Feb preliminary)
15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Earnings

Before:
Walter Energy (WLT)
Wal-Mart (WMT)

After:
Nordstrom (JWN)
Priceline.com (PCLN)
Aruba Networks (ARUN)
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
Newmont Mining (NEM)
Express Scripts (EXPR)
Rocket Fuel (FUEL)
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)
DIRECTV (DTV)
Groupon (GRPN)

Friday, February 21

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

10:00 Existing Home Sales - expected 4.70M, prior 4.87M
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.25b bonds in 23 to 30-year range

Fedspeak

1:10pm Bullard speaks on economy in St Louis

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY BoJ Jan meeting minutes
09:30 GBP Retail Sales
09:30 GBP Govt Finances
13:30 CAD Retail Sales
13:30 CAD CPI

Earnings

Before:
Charter Communications (CHTR)
DISH Network (DISH)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

Follow the markets all day every day with a FREE 14 day trial to Buzz & Banter. Over 30 professional traders share their ideas in real-time. Learn more.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Trading Radar: Early February Data to Rule Price Action
Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.
Michael Sedacca    

US markets opened the week continuing where they left off last Friday; the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) tacked on another 3.5% of gains. In the next week, US markets will be closed on Monday for Presidents' Day, and Friday is the month's options expiration date.

Following less-than-stellar economic data for the month of January, investors will turn their eyes to advance data for February. The first piece of information we saw was the University of Michigan/Reuters consumer confidence index on Friday, which remained unchanged in February at 81.2. We'll begin to see February manufacturing surveys trickle out next week, starting with the New York region on Tuesday morning.

The first piece of January homebuilding data, housing starts, and building permits are scheduled to be reported next Wednesday morning. Because of the extreme weather during the month, industrial production and retail sales data have been very weak, and it would not be surprising to see these figures drop significantly. Other economic reports for the week include January consumer and producer price indices.

China has been an oft-discussed topic lately and preliminary February data is scheduled to be reported there, too. The HSBC/Markit flash manufacturing index is scheduled to be reported Wednesday night and will be closely watched. In Japan, preliminary fourth-quarter GDP will be released on Monday, and the Bank of Japan will release its targeted expansion for the monetary base in 2014. Because many investors are long Japanese equities and have pulled back lately, both of these will weigh heavily on stocks in Japan, and by extension in the US. The UK ILO unemployment rate will be reported on Wednesday. The Bank of England said recently that it did not view its 7% unemployment threshold as a definite trigger to begin raising rates, this data point may be a non-event.

Even though the majority of US companies have reported earnings up to this point, there is still a smattering of notable companies reporting next week, including Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT). Other reports include Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), DirectTV (NASDAQ:DTV), and Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR).

Monday, February 17

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

US markets closed for Presidents Day holiday
11:00 Fed to purchase $1b-$1.5b bonds in 23 to 30-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY GDP (4Q preliminary)
JPY 2014 Monetary Base Target
04:30 JPY Industrial Production

Earnings

No reports

Tuesday, February 18

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Empire Manufacturing - expected 9, prior 12.51
09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows - exp $30B, prior -$29.3B
09:00 Total Net TIC Flows - prior -$16.6B
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index - exp 56, prior 56
11:00 Fed to purchase $3.75b-$4.5b notes in 4 to 5-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $30b 3-month, $30b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

07:00 EUR EU Car Registrations
09:30 GBP CPI
10:00 EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey

Earnings

Before:
Duke Energy (DUK)
Medtronic (MDT)
Coca-Cola (KO)

After:
Panera Bread (PNRA)
Flowserve (FLS)
CF Industries (CF)

Wednesday, February 19

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 PPI Final Demand YoY (new version of PPI) - expected 1.2%, prior 1.1%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY - exp 1.4%, prior 1.1%
08:30 Housing Starts - exp 950K, prior 999K
08:30 Building Permits - exp 977K, prior 986K
2:00 FOMC Minutes
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.25b notes in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills

Fedspeak

12:15pm Lockhart speaks on economy in Georgia
1:00pm Bullard speaks in Washington
7:00pm Williams speaks on economy in NY

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index
09:30 GBP BoE Minutes
09:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate

Earnings

Before:
MGM Resorts (MGM)
Six Flags Entertainment (SIX)
Carlyle Group (CG)
Devon Energy (DVN)

After:
Marriott (MAR)
Avis Budget (CAR)
HomeAway (AWAY)
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP)
Safeway (SWY)
Tesla (TSLA)
LifeLock (LOCK)

Thursday, February 20

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - expected 330K, prior 326K
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 3025K, prior 3056K
08:30 Consumer Price Index YoY - exp 1.6%, prior 1.5%
08:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY - exp 1.6%, prior 1.7%
08:58 Markit Preliminary US PMI - exp 53.6
10:00 Philly Fed - exp 8.5, prior 9.4
10:00 Leading Index - exp 0.4%, prior 0.1%
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.5b bonds in 23 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $9b 30yr TIPS (reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Japanese Investors Purchases of Foreign Bonds/Stocks
JPY Trade Balance
01:45 CNY HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
09:00 EUR Manufacturing & Services PMI (Feb preliminary)
15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Earnings

Before:
Walter Energy (WLT)
Wal-Mart (WMT)

After:
Nordstrom (JWN)
Priceline.com (PCLN)
Aruba Networks (ARUN)
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
Newmont Mining (NEM)
Express Scripts (EXPR)
Rocket Fuel (FUEL)
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)
DIRECTV (DTV)
Groupon (GRPN)

Friday, February 21

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

10:00 Existing Home Sales - expected 4.70M, prior 4.87M
11:00 Fed buying $1b-$1.25b bonds in 23 to 30-year range

Fedspeak

1:10pm Bullard speaks on economy in St Louis

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY BoJ Jan meeting minutes
09:30 GBP Retail Sales
09:30 GBP Govt Finances
13:30 CAD Retail Sales
13:30 CAD CPI

Earnings

Before:
Charter Communications (CHTR)
DISH Network (DISH)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

Follow the markets all day every day with a FREE 14 day trial to Buzz & Banter. Over 30 professional traders share their ideas in real-time. Learn more.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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