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Bears Close In on Claiming the Market for the Long-Term

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Bulls need a game changer, and are at risk of losing long-term control of the market.

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MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Thursday's decline captured the target of 20 SPX points from the bearish sell trigger outlined on Wednesday (1403 to 1383). In fact, all the bearish sell triggers I've outlined since the 1474 print high have now been captured. The failure of the 1403 level caused significant technical damage to the market, but in this update we're going to examine both the remaining bullish potential and bearish potentials in detail.

The market has reached another inflection point, and further downside from here could spell long-term disaster for bulls. The odds that the market has seen a major trend change at the 1474 high are increasing daily, and the chart below shows why this zone is important.

Most major markets have broken the long-term uptrends from the October 2011 lows, but are now reaching possible support levels concurrently.


Click to enlarge

As promised yesterday, here is the intermediate bullish interpretation that remains standing, shown on the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) chart below. This would make for one heckuva surprise from bulls here. While this count is still completely viable, I continue to have no intention of front-running this decline except at low-risk, tight stop entries, since the trend is clearly down at the moment (I trade primarily futures, so am rarely subject to huge gaps down as cash traders can be). Front-running is only for the very nimble now, because of the danger of the bear count (shown later), which suggests a nested third wave decline -- which means it can go days without coming up for air.

If SPX can generate an impulsive (five wave) bounce, we can run with this count as a more significant and "safer" potential play. Above 1434, and we can start favoring this count.

Honestly, the charts look horrible for bulls right now, and this count is close to becoming the underdog -- but there are three things which are causing me to continue considering the bullish wave count:

1. The QE-Infinity liquidity injections, which start on November 14.
2. The three-wave rally into the 2012 print high on the Dow Jones Industrials (shown later).
3. Big money sentiment is quite bearish. This is often bullish.


Click to enlarge
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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