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SPX, NYA, VIX, IBM: Market Refuses to Leave the Intermediate Chop Zone

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The depth of Friday's decline has raised some questions.

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MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Last update expected that the market was due to turn lower for at least a minor top, and turn lower it did -- however it moved a bit lower than expected, and this has now thrown the intermediate outlook back into the ambiguous zone. This weekend, I've charted more markets than I can count, and wrestled with what to present to readers to try and keep the whole thing reasonably understandable. I finally decided to boil it all down to a simple chart of the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) to avoid confusion. Don't worry, there are plenty more charts coming in this update, but I think it's easiest for readers to focus on the simple message in this chart:


Click to enlarge

The bottom line is: This is still the intermediate "chop zone" and until the market breaks down or breaks out, there are multiple options still open -- and the problem I've been running into this weekend is there are simply a lot of mixed messages being thrown off by different markets. I'm going to present a few charts that convey the case for each side -- and maybe the best assumption from this data is that the market may just continue chopping around for a bit longer.

If it does cleanly break through this zone, the losing side might just want to get out of the way until things clarify again.


Click to enlarge
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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