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SPX, NYA, VIX, IBM: Market Refuses to Leave the Intermediate Chop Zone


The depth of Friday's decline has raised some questions.

MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Last update expected that the market was due to turn lower for at least a minor top, and turn lower it did -- however it moved a bit lower than expected, and this has now thrown the intermediate outlook back into the ambiguous zone. This weekend, I've charted more markets than I can count, and wrestled with what to present to readers to try and keep the whole thing reasonably understandable. I finally decided to boil it all down to a simple chart of the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) to avoid confusion. Don't worry, there are plenty more charts coming in this update, but I think it's easiest for readers to focus on the simple message in this chart:

Click to enlarge

The bottom line is: This is still the intermediate "chop zone" and until the market breaks down or breaks out, there are multiple options still open -- and the problem I've been running into this weekend is there are simply a lot of mixed messages being thrown off by different markets. I'm going to present a few charts that convey the case for each side -- and maybe the best assumption from this data is that the market may just continue chopping around for a bit longer.

If it does cleanly break through this zone, the losing side might just want to get out of the way until things clarify again.

Click to enlarge
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