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Trading Radar: Sleepy Summer Week Ahead

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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On Thursday, nonfarm payrolls rose by a surprisingly high 288,000, and the 12-month average of payrolls eclipsed 200,000. Treasury yields rose by as much as six basis points initially, but some buyers did appear, just as sentiment surveys had indicated they would if results were better than expected. The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) continued to rise, making another new high as the Dow Jones Industrial (INDEXDJX:.DJI) rose above 17,000.

Next week's calendar is nearly void of scheduled events -- it will be quiet even for a post-jobs week. The only event of any note is the release of the FOMC minutes from its meeting on June 17-18. The minutes will be released on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. EDT. Investors will be focused on the committee's comments on inflation after Chair Yellen essentially ignored recent price increases. The only other report is May wholesale inventories, the results of which will influence second-quarter GDP forecasts.

China will release its June trade data next Thursday morning; it will draw more scrutiny than usual due to recent news reports about a large number of commodity-backed loans that were not actually backed by physical commodities. Also of note is the June consumer and producer price indexes. Recent economic data from China has been much better than expected, according to the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index.

Earnings season will get started next week with Alcoa (NYSE:AA) reporting on Tuesday. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), reporting Friday, is the first bank on the schedule.

Monday, July 7

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

No major reports scheduled
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.5bln-$3.25bln notes in 7 to 10-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $25bln 3-month bills, $23bln 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

05:00 JPY Leading Index (MAY P)
05:00 JPY Coincident Index (MAY P)
06:00 EUR German Industrial Production (MAY)
14:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (JUN)
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (MAY)
23:50 JPY Bank Lending (JUN)

Earnings

No reports scheduled

Tuesday, July 8

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

10:00 JOLTS Job Openings (May) - prior 4455
3:00 Consumer Credit (May) - expected $19.05B, prior $26.847B
11:00 Fed to purchase $1bln-$1.25bln bonds in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $27bln 3-year notes

Fedspeak

1:00pm Lacker (hawk, nonvoter) speaks on economy in North Carolina
1:45pm Kocherlakota (dove, voter) speaks on monetary policy in Minneapolis

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Eco Watchers Survey (JUN)
01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (JUN)
06:00 JPY Bankruptcies (JUN)
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (MAY)
08:30 GBP Industrial Production (MAY)
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MAY)
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (JUN)

Earnings

After
Bob Evans Farms (BOBE)
Alcoa (AA)

Wednesday, July 9

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:30 Crude Oil Inventories
2:00 Fed Releases FOMC meeting minutes (June 17-18 meeting)
1:00 Treasury selling $21bln 10-year notes (2nd reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUL)
01:30 CNY Producer Price Index (JUN)
01:30 CNY Consumer Price Index (JUN)
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (JUN P)
12:15 CAD Housing Starts (JUN)
22:30 NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (JUN)
23:50

Earnings

No reports scheduled

Thursday, July 10

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - prior 315K
08:30 Continuing Claims - prior 2579K
10:00 Wholesale Inventories - exp 0.6%, prior 1.1%
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
11:00 Fed to purchase $450m-$600m TIPS in 4 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $13bln 30-year bonds (2nd reopening)

Fedspeak:

1:15pm George (hawk, nonvoter) speaks on US economy in Oklahoma

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Machine Orders (MAY)
JPY Japanese Investors Purchases of Foreign Stocks and Bonds
CNY New Yuan Loans (JUN)
CNY Aggregate Financing RMB (JUN)
CNY Trade Balance (JUN)
01:30 AUD Unemployment Rate (JUN)
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index
08:00 EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
08:30 GBP Trade Balance (MAY)
11:00 GBP BOE Rate Decision (JUL)
11:00 GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (JUL)
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (MAY)

Earnings

Before:
Family Dollar (FDO)

Friday, July 11

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

2:00 Monthly Budget Statement (JUN)

Fedspeak:

2:45pm Lockhart (dove, nonvoter) and Evans (dove, nonvoter) to speak in Jackson Hole, WY

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 AUD Home Loans (MAY)
06:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index (JUN F)
08:30 GBP Construction Output (MAY)
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (JUN)

Earnings

Before
Wells Fargo (WFC)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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