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Trading Radar: Nonfarm Payrolls, ECB, and the FOMC

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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Next week will be the busiest one in quite some time. Both the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve will make rate decisions. For the ECB, it is becoming more widely expected that the central bank will cut its main refinancing rate to 0.50% from 0.75%, despite money market rates effectively being at 0 after 1 trillion euros of long-term refinancing operations (LTRO). However, it is worth noting that ECB President Mario Draghi has yet to be reactive to markets, so we are dubious as to whether or not the ECB will cut the main rate.

As for the Federal Reserve, commentary from FOMC members during the February and March months were pointed more toward moderation in monetary policy. Recently, coinciding with a continued downturn in economic data, if anything they have turned more dovish and may point toward more accommodative policy.

Purely on the economic data front, nonfarm payrolls are expected to rebound toward their longer run average at 155,000. Given the less-than-stellar reports thus far in April, it would be difficult to see a report that is above that mark. NFP isn't the only significant economic report next week. On Monday, personal spending and personal income for March will be released. This will be the first month that the data will not be distorted by dividend income. Personal spending has been flat to down this year as consumers save less in order to keep spending habits the same. Lastly the national ISM manufacturing survey will be released on Wednesday. Thus far, April regional manufacturing surveys have been mixed -- some have been great, some have been terrible, and some have been flat.

On the earnings front, notable reports for the week include LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD), Mastercard (NYSE:MA), Visa (NYSE:V), Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ:BWLD), and Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA).


Monday, April 29

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Personal Income - consensus 0.4%, prior 1.1%
08:30 Personal Spending - consensus 0.1%, prior 0.7%
08:30 PCE Deflator YoY - prior 1.3%
08:30 PCE Core YoY - consensus 1.3%, prior 1.3%
10:00 Pending Home Sales MoM - consensus 0.9%, prior -0.4%
10:30 Dallas Fed - prior 7.4
11:00 Fed buying $1.25b - $1.75b notes in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $29b 3-month bills, $24b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence
12:00 EUR German CPI
23:30 JPY Jobless Rate
23:50 JPY Industrial Production
23:50 JPY Household Spending

Earnings

After:
Masco (MAS)
Newmont Mining (NEM)
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)
Riverbed (RVBD)


Tuesday, April 30

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Employment Cost Index - consensus 0.5%, prior 0.5%
09:00 NAPM Milwaukee - prior 50.98
09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City Composite Yoy - consensus 8.9%, prior 8.08%
09:45 Chicago PMI - consensus 53, prior 52.4
10:00 Consumer Confidence - consensus 60, prior 59.7
11:00 Fed buying $4.25b - $5.25b notes in 4 to 4.5-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills, $23b in 52-week bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

05:00 JPY Housing Starts
07:55 EUR German Unemployment
08:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit
09:00 EUR CPI
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate
12:30 CAD GDP

Earnings

Before:
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
Cummins (CMI)
Starwood Hotels (HOT)
Avon Products (AVP)
Valero Energy (VLO)
Aetna (AET)
Legg Mason (LM)
Sirius (SIRI)
Regal Entertainment (RGC)

After:
Equity Residential (EQR)
Fortinet (FTNT)
Office Depot (ODP)
3D Systems (DDD)


Wednesday, May 1

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Index
08:15 ADP Employment Change - consensus 155K, prior 158K
08:58 Markit US Final PMI
10:00 Construction Spending - consensus 0.5%, prior 1.2%
10:00 ISM Manufacturing - consensus 51, prior 51.3
10:00 ISM Prices Paid - consensus 52.6, prior 54.5
2:00 FOMC Rate Decision
5:00 Total Vehicle Sales - consensus 15.3M, prior 15.22M
5:00 Domestic Vehicle Sales - consensus 12.1M, prior 12M

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI
08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI
11:00 Italy to sell bonds
11:30 Germany selling EU2b 30-year bonds

Earnings

Before:
CVS Caremark (CVS)
Time Warner (TWX)
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
Devon Energy (DVN)
Mastercard (MA)
Knight Capital (KCG)
Phillips 66 (PSX)

After:
Marriott (MAR)
Avis Budget (AVS)
Tesoro (TSO)
CBS (CBS)
JDS Uniphase (JDSU)
Visa (V)
Yelp (YELP)
Comcast (CMCSA)
Viacom (VIA)
Caesars Entertainment (CZR)


Thursday, May 2

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Claims – prior 339K
08:30 Continuing Claims – prior 3000K
08:30 Trade Balance - consensus -$42.3B, prior -$43B
08:30 Nonfarm Productivity - consensus 1.7%, prior -1.9%

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
08:30 GBP Construction PMI
11:45 ECB Rate Decision

Earnings

Before:
MGM Resorts (MGM)
Ocwen Financial (OCN)
Beazer Homes (BZH)
Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Nu Skin (NUS)
CME Group (CME)
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR)
Cigna (CI)
Fortress Investment Group (FIG)
Kellogg (K)

After:
Kraft (KRFT)
LinkedIn (LNKD)
Standard Pacific (SPF)
American Capital Agency (AGNC)
Tempur Pedic (SPX)
OpenTable (OPEN)
Gilead Sciences (GILD)


Friday, May 3

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls - consensus 155K, prior 88K
08:30 Private Payrolls - consensus 170K, prior 95K
08;30 Manufacturing Payrolls - consensus 5K, prior -3K
08:30 Unemployment Rate - consensus 7.6%, prior 7.6%
08:30 Average Workweek - consensus 34.6, prior 34.6
10:00 Factory Orders - consensus 1.3%, prior 3.0%
10:00 ISM Non-manufacturing Composite - consensus 54.4, prior 54.4

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI
01:30 AUD Producer Price Index
06:00 CHF UBS Real Estate Bubble Index
08:30 GBP Services PMI
09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI

Earnings

Before:
Regeneron (REGN)
Moody's (MCO)
Duke Energy (DUK)


Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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