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Trading Radar: Terrorist Attack on 9/11 Anniversary is Top Concern

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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Coming out of Friday, the main worry for investors next week will be the danger of an attack by either ISIS or Al Qaeda on US or allied soil. The specter of a US-led coalition entering Syria is only inflaming this threat. The conflict in Ukraine is heating up as well with NATO countries stepping up defense spending and deploying forces to eastern Poland. The S&P 500 (SPX) successfully negated recording a weekly outside down bar on Friday after bouncing off support at 1989. On Thursday, the SPX recorded an outside down day.

As is typical after a payrolls report, the economic calendar next week is sparse. The only report of note is the August retail sales data on Friday morning. Since early-2011, on an annual basis nominal sales have remained in a downtrend. Sales are expected to rise by 0.5% in the August report helped by strong back-to-school sales and a modest jump in auto sales.

With the FOMC meeting on September 17, there will be no speeches by Fed members about monetary policy in the coming week. This meeting, and the evolution of ECB policy, will continue to be a driving force across all asset classes.

It's still a few weeks away from earnings season so the calendar is sparse. With the latest rally in the dollar, keep an eye out for companies pre-reporting based upon unfavorable foreign exchange conditions.

Monday, September 8

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
 
3:00 Consumer Credit (Jul) - expected $17.3B, prior $17.25B
11:00 Fed buying $950M-$1.15b Treasuries in 25 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell $26b 3-month bills, $23b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Trade Balance
JPY GDP (2Q final)
CNY Trade Balance
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance
07:15 CHF CPI
12:30 CAD Building Permits
 
Earnings
 
After
FuelCell Energy (FUEL)
Campbell Soup (CPB)

Tuesday, September 9

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) - expected 96.0, prior 95.7
10:00 JOLTS Job Openings - exp 4711, prior 4671
10:00 Construction Spending MoM (Jul) - exp 0.8%, prior -1.8%
11:30 Treasury to sell 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury to sell $27b 3-year notes
 
Fedspeak
 
10:00am Tarullo (moderate, board member) testifies to Senate Banking Committee

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY BoJ Minutes
01:30 AUD Home Loans
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index
08:30 GBP Trade Balance
08:30 GBP Industrial & Manufacturing Production
12:15 CAD Housing Starts
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (Aug)
9:30am BoE's Carney speaks in Liverpool

Earnings

Before:
Barnes & Noble (BKS)
HD Supply Holdings (HDS)
 
After
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

Wednesday, September 10

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
10:00 Wholesale Inventories MoM (Jul) - expected 0.5%, prior 0.3%
11:00 Fed to buy $350m-$450m TIPS in 5 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury to sell $21b 10-year notes (reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence
2:45pm BoE's Carney speaks to Parliament

Earnings

After
Five Below (FIVE)
Men's Wearhouse (MW)
Radioshack (RSH)

Thursday, September 11

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
 
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - expected 300K, prior 302K
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 2500K, prior 2464K
2:00 Treasury Budget (Aug) - exp -$135B
11:00 Fed to purchase $2b-$2.5b Treasuries in 6 to 7-year range
1:00 Treasury to sell $13b 30-year bonds (reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

NZD RBNZ Rate Decision
JPY BSI Large Manufacturing (3Q)
01:30 CNY CPI & PPI
01:30 AUD Employment Change
06:00 EUR German CPI (Aug final)
12:30 CAD New Home Price Index
8:00pm ECB's Draghi speaks in Milan

Earnings
 
After:
Ulta Salon (ULTA)
Kroger (KR)

Friday, September 12
 
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Advance Retail Sales (Aug) - expected 0.5%, prior 0.0%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto - exp 0.2%, prior 0.1%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas - exp 0.4%, prior 0.1%
08:30 Import Price Index MoM (Aug) - exp -1.0%, prior -0.2%
09:55 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Sep prelim) - exp 83.5, prior 82.5
10:00 Business Inventories (Jul) - exp 0.5%, prior 0.4%

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production
7:05am BoJ's Kuroda speaks
 
Earnings

Darden Restaurants (DRI)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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