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Trading Radar: Blizzard Edition

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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This past week was a bit slower as there was little economic data to move the market. Friday's trade balance showed a large increase in exports for December, which boosted the market to gain half a percent.

Next week will have a few more important economic metrics from January. Advance retail sales on Wednesday is the real highlight of the week. Throughout January, consumer confidence figures trended down as consumers pulled back on spending due to an increase in taxes or an unsatisfactory resolution to the fiscal budget. Expectations are already low at 0.1% month-to-month, down from 0.5% last month, and we expect that to miss to the downside.

There are two economic datapoints on Friday. The first is the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence reading for February. This is expected to increase slightly to 74.8 from 73.8 last month. The other is the NY manufacturing gauge. Last month, regional Fed surveys showed a sharp decline in manufacturing activity. This will need to pick up with a better retail sales number to keep the rally intact.

On Thursday morning, the Bank of Japan will release its monthly rate decision. We can't expect much new from this meeting, but undoubtedly the central bank will continue to talk down the currency. However, today, the Japanese finance minister stated that the yen had declined at too rapid of a pace, which caused a sharp snapback in the currency. Previously, the central bank committed to an unlimited asset purchase plan to begin later this year.

Key earnings reports for the week include Nvidia (NVDA), Pepsi (PEP), Coca-Cola (KO), Liberty Global (LBTYA), Cisco (CSCO), Comcast (CMCSA), General Motors (GM), Kraft Foods (KRFT), and DirecTV (DTV).

Monday, February 11

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

No major reports
11:00 Fed to buy $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 23 to 29-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $35b 3-month, $30b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD New Home Loans
20:45 NZD NZ Card Spending

Earnings

Before:

After:
Masco (MAS)


Tuesday, February 12

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism - consensus 89.5, prior 88.0
10:00 JOLTS Job Openings
2:00 Treasury Budget - consensus -$2B, prior -$27.41B
11:00 Fed to buy $2.75b-$3.5b notes in 7 to 9-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $32b 3-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence
05:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders
07:15 CHF CPI
08:30 GBP PPI
08:30 GBP CPI
11:30 Germany selling EU1b in 5-year inflation linked notes
11:30 EFSF selling EU1b 10-year notes

Earnings

Before:
Avon Products (AVP)
Coca-Cola (KO)
Fossil (FOSL)
Huntsman (HUN)
McGraw-Hill (MHP)

After:
Clearwire (CLWR)
Cliffs Natural Resource (CLF)
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)
Rackspace (RAX)
Level 3 Communications (LVLT)


Wednesday, February 13

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Index
08:30 Import Price Index MoM - consensus 0.8%, prior -0.1%
08:30 Import Price Index YoY - consensus -1.0%, prior -1.5%
08:30 Retail Sales - consensus 0.1%, prior 0.5%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Autos - consensus 0.1%, prior 0.3%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Autos & Gas - consensus 0.4%, prior 0.6%
10:00 Business Inventories (Dec) - consensus 0.3%, prior 0.3%
11:00 Fed buying $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 23 to 29-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $24b 10-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production
09:30 GBP BoE Inflation Report
23:50 JPY GDP
11:00 Italy to sell bonds
11:30 Germany to sell EU2b 5-year notes

Earnings

Before:
Deere (DE)
Dean Foods (DF)
Duke Energy (DUK)
Comcast (CMCSA)
Lorillard (LO)

After:
Nvidia (NVDA)
Avis Budget (CAR)
Applied Materials (AMAT)
Whole Foods (WFM)
Cisco (CSCO)
EOG Resources (EOG)
NetApp (NTAP)
Weight Watchers (WTW)
Liberty Global (LBTYA)
Zillow (Z)


Thursday, February 14

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Claims – consensus 360K, prior 366K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3210K, prior 3224K
11:00 Fed to buy $4.75b-$5.75b notes in 4 to 5.5-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $16b 30-year bonds

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY BoJ Rate Decision
07:00 EUR French GDP
07:00 EUR German GDP
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP
21:45 NZD Retail Sales

Earnings

Before:
Davita Pharma (DVA)
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR)
Pepsi (PEP)
Discovery Communications (DISCA)
Apache (APA)
General Motors (GM)

After:
Agilent (A)

CBS (CBS)
Brocade (BRCD)
Molson Coors (TAP)
DirecTV (DTV)


Friday, February 15

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Empire Manufacturing (Feb) - consensus -2, prior -7.78
09:00 Total Net TIC Flows (Dec) - prior $27.8B
09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Dec) - consensus $35B, prior $52.3B
09:15 Industrial Production - consensus 0.2%, prior 0.3%
09:15 Capacity Utilization - consensus 78.9%, prior 78.8%
09:15 Manufacturing Production - consensus 0.1%, prior 0.8%
09:55 University of Michigan Confidence Statement (1st estimate Feb) - consensus 74.8, prior 73.8

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

04:30 JPY Industrial Production
08:30 GBP Retail Sales

Earnings

Before:
Kraft Foods (KRFT)
TRW Automotive (TRW)
VF Corp (VFC)
IPG Photonics (IPGP)


Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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