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Trading Radar: US Economic Data Party Before Christmas Holiday

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL

Over the weekend, the Japanese government will hold elections. It is universally expected that the more liberal party led by Shinzo Abe will win control of Parliament and bring about more stimulative fiscal and monetary policy. As is widely known, the yen has been under considerable pressure for the past month and has deteriorated dramatically versus the US dollar.

Due to the Christmas holiday in the week following, much of the US economic data has been pushed up to this week. That includes the third estimate of 3Q GDP, Housing Starts, Building Permits, PCE inflation, income, consumption and spending indicators. Most economic indicators will show a small increase on a month-to-month basis, though the Housing Starts and Permits will show small declines. The Treasury will be auctioning 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes.

Globally the highlight is the monetary policy decision from the Bank of Japan. It is expected that the BoJ will expand its credit lending operation to the private sector and easing policies. On Friday, the UK and Canada will report their GDP figures from the prior quarter, one day after the US reports.

In earnings, Jefferies (NYSE:JEF), Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL), Fedex (NYSE:FDX), General Mills (NYSE:GIS), Nike (NYSE:NKE), Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI), KB Homes (NYSE:KBH) are the notable reports for the week.

Monday, December 17

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Empire Manufacturing – consensus -1.00, prior -5.22
09:00 Total Net TIC Flows – prior $4.7B
09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows – consensus $25.0B, prior $3.3B
11:00 Fed buying $4.25b-$5.25b notes in 6 to 8-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $32b 3-month, $28b 6-month bills
1:00 Treasury selling $35b 2-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance
14:00 CAD Existing Home Sales

Earnings

No major reports


Tuesday, December 18

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Current Account Balance – consensus -$104.0B consensus, prior -$117.4B
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index – consensus 47, prior 46
11:00 Fed to buy $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week
1:00 Treasury selling $35b 5-year notes
2:00 Fed selling $7b-$8b notes in 3-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence
08:00 CNY China Property Prices
09:30 GBP PPI
09:30 GBP CPI

Earnings

Before
Factset Research (FDS)
Jefferies (JEF)
After:
Oracle (ORCL)


Wednesday, December 19

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Index
08:30 Housing Starts – consensus 874K, prior 894K
08:30 Building Permits – consensus 875K, prior 868K
11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $29b 7-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting
05:00 JPY Leading Index
09:00 EUR German IFO Business Climate
09:30 GBP BoE Minutes
21:45 NZD GDP

Earnings

Before
General Mills (GIS)
Fedex (FDX)
After
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)
Jabil Circuit (JBL)
Paychex (PAYX)


Thursday, December 20

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Claims – consensus 360K, prior 343K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3215K, prior 3205K
08:30 GDP QoQ (Annualized) – consensus 2.8%, prior 2.7%
08:30 Personal Consumption – consensus 1.5%, prior 1.4%
08:30 GDP Price Index – consensus 2.7%, prior 2.7%
08:30 Core PCE – consensus 1.1%, prior 1.1%
10:00 Philly Fed – consensus -3, prior -10.7
10:00 Existing Home Sales – consensus 4.90M, prior 4.79M
10:00 Leading Indicators – consensus -0.2%, prior 0.2%
10:00 House Price Index – consensus 0.2%, prior 0.2%
11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 11 to 20-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $14b 5-year TIPS
2:00 Fed selling $7b-$8b notes in 2.5-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY BoJ Rate Decision
07:00 CHF Trade Balance
07:00 EUR German PPI
09:30 GBP Retail Sales
13:30 CAD Retail Sales
15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Earnings

Before
KB Home (KBH)
Carmax (KMX)
Discover Financial (DFS)
Darden Restaurants (DRI)
Conagra (CAG)
After
Nike (NKE)
Micron Tech (MU)
Red Hat (RHT)
Carnival (CCL)


Friday, December 21

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Chicago Fed – prior -0.56
08:30 Personal Income – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.0%
08:30 Personal Spending – consensus 0.4%, prior -0.2%
08:30 PCE Deflator YoY – consensus 1.6%, prior 1.7%
08:30 PCE Core YoY – consensus 1.6%, prior 1.6%
08:30 Durable Goods – consensus 0.5%, prior 0.5%
08:30 Durable Goods ex Transports – consensus -0.2%, prior 1.8%
08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air – consensus -1.1%, prior 1.7%
08:30 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air – consensus 0.8%, prior -0.4%
09:55 University of Michigan Confidence (2nd estimate) – consensus 75, prior 74.5
11:00 Kansas City Fed – consensus -5, prior -6
11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

02:00 NZD Credit Card Spending
07:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence
09:30 GBP Public Finances
09:30 GBP GDP
13:30 CAD GDP
13:30 CAD CPI

Earnings

Before:
Walgreen's (WAG)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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