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Trading Radar: Light Economic Week, No Fed Speak

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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Volatility returned to global markets in the past week, to the joy of many short-term traders. During the week, the S&P 500 (SPX) recorded its first monthly decline since January, losing 1.79%. For the week it was down 3.16%, one of the worst of the year, and closed below its 50dma. The high yield market continued to be unmercifully trashed. For the week, HY spreads were 45bps wider and was a major leader of the equity weakness. The selling does not look like it will let up next week as a steady level of demand has yet to be reached, and until it does there should be further downside for equities.

In the week ahead, the economic calendar is essentially empty. The only report that should cause any volatility is the ISM non-manufacturing index. Services growth in the past quarter was very robust and market participants will be looking for that strength to be corroborated in July. The other

Oddly, no FOMC speakers are scheduled to make any speeches in the coming week, which would usually happen in the week following a meeting. On Friday, two noted hawks - who are also voters - Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser, made public comments on TV and via a statement that highlighted their hawkish rhetoric. Usually committee members will use the weeks after the meeting to help explain to the market what was discussed. The next scheduled public communication is Jackson Hole at the end of August.

The main events for the week in the global theater are the respective rate decisions for the ECB and Bank of England. Recently, the BoE has become increasingly hawkish, moving at a pace roughly six months in front of the US Fed. Expect that trend to continue this week. As far as the ECB goes, inflation remains low in the eurozone and that will give the central bank plenty of cover to continue its dovish tone. It may also positively note the recent decline in the currency. Lastly, credit growth picked up in June following the bank's actions to ease monetary conditions, and this is also a positive.

The earnings calendar is heavy again in the coming week, more than 200 major US companies are scheduled to report. Notable reports for the week include Disney (DIS), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), FireEye (FEYE), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Ralph Lauren (RL), and AOL (AOL).

Monday, August 4

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
 
09:45 ISM New York - prior 60.5
11:00 Fed to purchase $950m-$1.15b bonds in 22-30 year range
11:30 Treasury to sell $28b 3-month bills and $25b 6-month bills
 
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 AUD Retail Sales
07:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI
08:30 GBP Construction PMI
 
Earnings
 
After:
AIG (AIG)
Marathon Oil (MRO)
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)
ChannelAdvisor (ECOM)

Tuesday, August 5

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
 
10:00 ISM Non-manufacturing (July) - expected 56.5, prior 56.0
10:00 Factory Orders - exp 0.6%, prior -0.5%
11:00 Treasury to sell 4-week bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 AUD Trade Balance
01:35 JPY Services PMI
01:45 CNY HSBC Services PMI
04:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision
08:30 GBP Services PMI

Earnings

Before:
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
Emerson Electric (EMR)
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)
CVS Caremark (CVS)
MGM Resorts (MGM)
Cablevision (CVC)
Regeneron (REGN)
 
After:
Walt Disney (DIS)
Frontier Communications (FTR)
EOG Resources (EOG)
Activision (ATVI)
Continental Resources (CLR)
First Solar (FSLR)
Groupon (GRPN)
Rocket Fuel (FUEL)
FireEye (FEYE)
 
Office Depot (ODP)
Coach (COH)
Zillow (Z)
Liberty Media (LMCA)

Wednesday, August 6

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Apps
08:30 Trade Balance (June) - expected -$45B, prior -$44.4B
2:00 Fed's Beige Book
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.4b-$1.7b notes in 4 to 5-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

NZD Employment Change
05:00 JPY Leading Index (June)
06:00 EUR German Factory Orders
07:15 CHF CPI
08:30 GBP Industrial and Manufacturing Production

Earnings

Before:
Stifel (SF)
Molson Coors (TAP)
Time Warner (TWX)
HollyFrontier (HFC)
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
NuSkin (NUS)
Apollo Global Management (APO)
Devon Energy (DVN)
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR)
Starwood Property Trust (STWD)
Nationstar Mortgage (NSM)
Parker Hannafin (PH)
 
After:
MBIA (MBI)
Symantec (SYMC)
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR)
Prudential Financial (PRU)
Annaly Capital (NLY)
Gulfport Energy (GPOR)
CF Industries (CF)
MolyCorp (MCP)
 
Sotheby's (BID)
Dish Network (DISH)
Viacom (VIA)
AOL (AOL)

Thursday, August 7

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims, June 28, exp. 305k, prior 302k
08:30 Continuing Claims - exp 2510K, prior 2539k
3:00 Consumer Credit (June) - exp $18.25B, prior $19.62B
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.05b-$2.5b notes in 7 to 10-year range
 
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

Japan Investors Purchases of Foreign Stocks/Bonds
01:30 AUD Employment Change
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI

Earnings

Before:
Cooper Tire (CTB)
Goodrich Petroleum (GDP)
Wendy's (WEN)
Duke Energy (DUKW)
 
After:
Nvidia (NVDA)
Monster Beverages (MNST)
CBS (CBS)
Lions Gate (LGF)
Medivation (MDVN)
Zynga (ZNGA)
Solarcity (SCTY)
 
Linn Energy (LINE)

Friday, August 8

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Nonfarm Productivity (2Q prelim) - expected 1.4%, prior -3.2%
08:30 Unit Labor Costs - exp 1.2%, prior 5.7%
10:00 Wholesale Inventories MoM (June) - exp 0.8%, prior 0.5%

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Trade Balance
CNY Trade Balance
BoJ Rate Decision
08:30 GBP Trade Balance
08:30 GBP Construction Output
12:30 CAD Employment Change

Earnings

PDC Energy (PDCE)


Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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