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Trading Radar: Will Next Week's Inflation Report Bring the 'Noise'?


Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

Turn it up! Bring the noise!
 --Public Enemy

In the week past, Janet Yellen's dismissal of recent signs of inflation -- she described the data as "noisy" -- gave risk assets, particularly the inflation-sensitive variety, the green light to rally. Investors should be covered until Janet Yellen speaks again next month, at the Humphrey Hawkins testimony on July 17, and at the Jackson Hole meeting on July 19.  Presumably the noise Yellen referred to comes from recent increases in food prices, due to numerous global droughts and disease, distributive services, due to poor winter weather, and medical services costs related to the introduction of the Affordable Care Act.

In the week ahead, personal income and the PCE inflation gauge will draw increased scrutiny because of the previously mentioned factors. That report is due out Thursday morning.

The third and final estimate of first quarter US GDP will be reported next Wednesday morning. Due to downward revisions to the March trade balance and inventories, the next estimate should show further contraction in the first quarter. In addition, the first-quarter services report showed a much lower amount of growth than economists had factored into estimates. As a result, economists now expect to see -1.8% quarterly annualized growth in the first quarter versus the prior government estimates of -1.0% and 0.1%. The US will need to grow at a quarterly annualized run rate of 3.25% for the rest of the year to reach the 2.2% projection, if final first-quarter growth is in fact -1.8%.

Two parts of the May personal spending report will draw increased attention: the wages and salary component from personal income, and the PCE deflator. Investors will be paying close attention to see if wages are increasing at a faster rate --  they are currently growing at a 3.7% nominal rate, the averaged rate of the last three years. If this pace increases faster than inflation, the market will begin pricing in a more hawkish Fed. The expectations are similar for the PCE price gauges, which represents consumer inflation levels.

The other four reports of note from the week are May new home sales, May durable goods orders, April S&P/Case Shiller home prices, and the final levels for the Conference Board and University of Michigan/Reuters consumer confidence indices.

Overseas, the main event next week is the preliminary private survey of Chinese manufacturers for June, scheduled to be released on Sunday. The last five months of reports have shown a trough in activity, and last month we saw the first inklings of improvement. Similar surveys will be released for the Eurozone on Monday morning. The Japanese consumer price index for May will also be reported.

Notable earnings for next week include Nike (NYSE:NKE), Monsanto (NYSE:MON), Walgreen (NYSE:WAG), Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS), and Lennar Homes (LEN).

Monday, June 23

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
08:30 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, May, exp. 0.2, prior -0.32
09:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI, June prelim., exp. 56.0, prior, 56.4
10:00 Existing Home Sales, May, exp. 4.74m, prior 4.65m
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes in 6-7 year range
11:30 Treasury to sell $25b 3-month bills and $23b 6-month bills
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:35 JPY Manufacturing PMI (JUN P)
01:45 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI
07:00 EUR France Manufacturing & Services PMI (JUN P)
07:30 EUR Germany Manufacturing & Services PMI (JUN P)
08:00 EUR Euro-zone Manufacturing & Services PMI (JUN P)
Micron Technology (MU)

Tuesday, June 24

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
09:00 FHFA House Price Index, Apr., exp. 0.6%, prior 0.7%
09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City Composite MoM, Apr., exp. 0.8%, prior 1.24%
09:00 S&P/CS YoY, Apr, exp 11.50%, prior 12.37%
10:00 Consumer Confidence Index, June, exp. 83.5, prior 83
10:00 New Home Sales, May, exp. 440k, prior 433k
10:00 Richmond Fed, Jun, exp 6, prior 7
11:00 Fed to purchase $850m-$1.1b bonds in 22-30 year range
11:30 Treasury to sell $25b 52-week bills, 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury to sell $30b 2-year notes
08:05 Plosser to speak in New York
18:30 Williams to speak in Stanford, CA

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

08:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate (JUN)
08:00 EUR Germany IFO Current Assessment (JUN)
08:00 EUR Germany IFO Expectations (JUN)

Walgreen (WAG)
Carnival (CCL)

Wednesday, June 25

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Apps
08:30 Durable Goods Orders, May, exp. -0.2%, prior 0.8%
08:30 Durable Goods ex-Transports, May, exp 0.3%, prior 0.1%
08:30 GDP Annualized, 1Q, exp. -1.8%, prior -1%
08:30 Personal Consumption, exp 2.5%, prior 3.1%
08:30 GDP Price Index, exp 1.3%, prior 1.3%
08:30 Core PCE QoQ, exp 1.2%, prior 1.2%
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.25b-$2.75b notes in 7-10 year range
11:30 Treasury to sell $13b 2-year floating-rate notes
13:00 Treasury to sell $35b 5-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

No major reports


General Mills (GIS)
Barnes & Noble (BKS)
Apollo Education (APO)
Monsanto (MON)
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)

Thursday, June 26

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims, June 21, exp. 311k, prior 312k
08:30 Personal Income, May, exp. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
08:30 Personal Spending, May, exp 0.4%, prior -0.1%
08:30 PCE Deflator YoY, May, exp 1.8%, prior 1.6%
08:30 PCE Core YoY, May, exp 1.5%, prior 1.4%
11:00 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, June, exp. 9, prior 10
11:00 Fed to purchase $850m-$1.1b bonds in 22 to 30 year range
13:00 Treasury to sell $29b 7-year notes
08:30 Lacker speaks in Lynchburg, VA
13:05 Bullard speaks in New York
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

12:30 CAD Average Weekly Earnings (APR)
16:00 EUR France Total Jobseekers (MAY)
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (MAY)


Lennar (LEN)
ConAgra Foods (CAG)

Nike (NKE)

Friday, June 27

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:55 UofMich Consumer Sentiment, June F, exp. 82, prior 81.2

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Jobless Rate (MAY)
JPY Household Spending (MAY)
JPY National CPI (MAY)
JPY Retail Trade (MAY)
01:30 CNY Industrial Profits (MAY)
06:45 EUR France GDP (1Q F)
08:30 GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (JUN)
08:30 GBP Current Account (1Q)
08:30 GBP GDP (1Q F)
08:30 GBP Index of Services (APR)
08:30 GBP Total Business Investment (1Q F)
09:00 EUR Euro-zone Economic Confidence (JUN)
12:00 EUR Germany CPI (JUN P)


No major reports

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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