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Trading Radar: Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings Season; BoE and ECB on Tap

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL A slightly better-than-expected jobs number on Friday that saw the unemployment rate tick up to 7.8% left the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) only slightly better on the day. For the holiday-shortened week, the S&P rose 4.57% following a successful resolution to the scheduled US austerity measures.

Next week the US economic slate is much lighter than the past week, but the Treasury will be auctioning off 3-, 10- and 30-year notes. The 10- and 30-year auctions will be the second reopening. Tuesday is the Fed's measure of Consumer Credit for November, which should continue to grow as car sales kept up their modest pace of growth during November and December. The other economic datapoint to note is the US trade balance on Thursday, which should influence trading flows in Treasuries.

Globally it will be a bit more interesting. The European Central Bank and Bank of England will release their monthly interest rate decisions on Thursday. For the first time in awhile, the BoE's decision will be more important than the ECB's. The only thing the ECB can really say is anything related to its seniority on holdings of sovereign debt through its SMP program, specifically Greece. More interestingly, the BoE can discuss any expansions to its asset purchase program as last month some members of the council began to push back at expanding this further.

In China, on Wednesday and Thursday, a slew of data will be released including industrial production, inflation, and monetary system releases. We can never be certain whether or not this data will be released, but keep it on the radar nonetheless.

Earnings wise, Alcoa (NYSE:AA) reports on Tuesday, so this will officially kick off earnings season. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) will kick off the bank earnings on Friday. The other notable reports include Monsanto (NYSE:MON), Apollo Group (NASDAQ:APOL), and Supervalu (NYSE:SVU).

Monday, January 7

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

No major economic reports
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 25 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell $32b 3-month, $28b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI

Earnings

No reports


Tuesday, January 8

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism – consensus 87.2, prior 87.5
10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism – consensus 46.0, prior 45.1
3:00 Consumer Credit – consensus $11.50B, prior $14.158B
11:00 Fed to buy $3b-$3.75b notes in 5 to 6-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell 4-week bills, $25b in 52-week bills
1:00 Treasury to sell $32b 3-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Trade Balance
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
09:00 EUR Italian Unemployment Rate
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders

Earnings

Before:
Monsanto (MON)
After:
Alcoa (AA)
Apollo Group (APOL)


Wednesday, January 9

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Index
11:00 Fed to buy $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 25 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury to sell $21b in 10-year notes (2nd reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY CPI
CNY PPI
CNY Industrial Production
CNY Fixed Asset Investments YTD
CNY Retail Sales
00:30 AUD Retail Sales
09:30 GBP Trade Balance
11:00 EUR German Industrial Production
21:45 NZD Trade Balance
11:30 Germany to sell EU5b 5-year notes

Earnings

Before:
Constellation Brands (STZ)

Texas Industries (TXI)
Greenbrier (GBX)


Thursday, January 10

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Claims – consensus 365K, prior 372K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3235K, prior 3245K
10:00 Wholesale Inventories – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.6%
10:00 JOLTs Job Openings – prior 3675
11:00 Fed to buy $2.75b-$3.5b notes in 7 to 9-year range
1:00 Treasury to sell $13b 30-year bonds (2nd reopening)

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY New Yuan Loans
CNY Trade Balance
12:00 GBP Bank of England Rate Decision
12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision
9:30 Spain to sell bonds

Earnings

Supervalu (SVU)


Friday, January 11

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Import Price Index – consensus -1.5%, prior -1.6%
08:30 Trade Balance – consensus -$41.2B, prior -$42.2B
2:00 Treasury Budget Statement
11:00 Fed to buy $4.75b-$5.75b notes in 4 to 5-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)


08:15 CHF CPI
09:30 GBP Industrial Production
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production
11:00 Italy to sell bonds

Earnings

Before:
Wells Fargo (WFC)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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