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Trading Radar: Bank Earnings Will Make or Break the Rally


Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

This past week was just what the doctor ordered, for both sides of the market. For the bulls, the sideways action was viewed as healthy, as the market worked off overbought conditions. For the bears, the sideways action was viewed as negative, as the market could not get continued follow-through. The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) finished the week up 11 points.

Though it was a slow week all around, the economic data will pick up next week. The US will release retail sales, inflation data, and housing sales. The important releases to note are Advance Retail Sales on Tuesday, CPI and Manufacturing Production on Wednesday, and Housing Starts on Thursday. It is worth pointing out that the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has begun to turn sharply lower as economic estimates diverge from reality.

There will be no US Treasury issuance for the next two weeks, the first time this has occurred during the month of January or February since 2009. This, combined with continued purchases from the Fed, will put upward pressure on Treasuries.

On the global front, China will continue releasing its string of economic releases on Friday with real GDP, industrial production, and retail sales. Also, Germany will release GDP figures.

In terms of earnings, banks are on deck next week as the number of releases pick up. Citigroup (NYSE:C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), and Fifth Third Bancorp (NYSE:FITB) will release earnings.

Monday, January 14

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

No major economic reports
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 25 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell $32b 3-month, $28b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Home Loans
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production
15:30 CAD Business Outlook – Future Sales


No reports

Tuesday, January 15

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Empire Manufacturing – consensus 0.00, prior -8.10
08:30 Advance Retail Sales – consensus 0.2%, prior 0.3%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Autos – consensus 0.2%, prior 0.0%
08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas – consensus 0.4%, prior 0.7%
08:30 Producer Price Index YoY – consensus 1.4%, prior 1.5%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy – consensus 2.1%, prior 2.2%
10:00 Business Inventories – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.4%
11:00 Fed to buy $750m-$1b bonds in 11 to 19-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell 4-week bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

04:30 JPY Bankruptcies
07:00 EUR German CPI
08:00 EUR German GDP
09:30 GBP PPI
09:30 GBP CPI


Lennar (LEN)
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD)

Wednesday, January 16

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Index
08:30 Consumer Price Index YoY – consensus 1.8%, prior 1.8%
08:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY – consensus 1.9%, prior 1.9%
09:00 Total Net TIC Flows – prior -$56.7B
09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows – prior $1.3B
09:15 Industrial Production – consensus 0.2%, prior 1.1%
09:15 Capacity Utilization – consensus 78.5%, prior 78.4%
09:15 Manufacturing Production – consensus 0.6%, prior 1.1%
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index – consensus 48, prior 47
2:00 Beige Book
11:00 Fed to buy $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 25 to 30-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence
08;15 CHF Retail Sales
10:00 EUR CPI
11:30 Germany to sell EU5b 10-year notes


Charles Schwab (SCHW)
Northern Trust (NTRS)
US Bancorp (USB)
Bank of NY Mellon (BK)
JPMorgan (JPM)
Goldman Sachs (GS)
Sallie Mae (SLM)

Thursday, January 17

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Claims – consensus 370K, prior 371K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3220K, prior 3109K
08:30 Housing Starts – consensus 890K, prior 861K
08:30 Building Permits – consensus 904K, prior 899K
10:00 Philly Fed – consensus 6.0, prior 8.1
11:00 Fed to buy $2.75b-$3.5b notes in 7 to 9-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Employment Change
09:00 EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
21:45 NZD Consumer Prices
9:30 Spain to sell 2-, 5-, and 30-year bonds
9:50 France to sell 2-,4-, 5-year notes


UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Blackrock (BLK)
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
Bank of America (BAC)
Citigroup (C)
Capital One Financial (COF)
Intel (INTC)

Xilinx (XLNX)

Friday, January 18

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

09:55 University of Michigan Confidence – consensus 75, prior 72.9
11:00 Fed to buy $1.25b-$1.75b bonds in 25 to 30-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 CNY China Property Prices
02:00 CNY Real GDP
02:00 CNY Industrial Production
02:00 CNY Retail Sales
04:30 JPY Industrial Production
09:30 GBP Retail Sales
11:00 Italy to sell bonds


General Electric (GE)
Parker Hannafin (PH)
Suntrust (STI)
McMoran Exploration (MMR)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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