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Trading Radar: GDP, Fed, Durable Goods, and Earnings Fever

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Next week, the Federal Reserve's FOMC will meet to discuss monetary policy for the second to last time before the end of the year. Last month, the FOMC decided to begin a new asset purchase program of $40 billion in long-term mortgage-backed securities (MBS). It is unlikely that the FOMC will make any changes to this plan, but the committee will likely change the way it targets different economic measures in conjunction with its interest rate policy.

Later in the week, the US will release the first estimate of third quarter GDP figures. The US economy is expected to grow to 1.8% annual rate from last quarter's 1.3%. Durable goods orders are also expected to rebound after dropping 13.2% last month, one of the biggest monthly drops on record. The orders are expected to rise to 6.2% this month.

Thursday's weekly jobless claims have been volatile the past two weeks. The report last week dropped sharply after one state was not included, but this week's reading rebounded sharply after the prior week's missing claims were added in.

It will be a very busy week for earnings. Highlights include Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), Freeport-McMoran (NYSE:FCX), Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), UPS (NYSE:UPS), Boeing (NYSE:BA), AT&T (NYSE:T) Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO).

Monday, October 22

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

No major economic reports
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.75b-$2.25b in 25 to 30-year notes
11:30 Treasury to sell $32b 3-month, $28b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

07:00 CHF Real Estate Index

Earnings

Before:
Suntrust Banks (STI) EPS $2.02
Hasbro (HAS) EPS $1.20
Caterpillar (CAT) EPS $2.22
Freeport-McMoran (FCX) EPS 73c
After:
Zions Banc (ZION) EPS 34c
Texas Instruments (TXN) EPS 40c
Western Digital (WDC) EPS $2.30
Yahoo (YHOO) EPS 26c

Tuesday, October 23

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

10:00 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index – consensus 4, prior 4
11:00 Fed purchasing $7b-8b notes in 2.5 to 3-year range
11:30 US to sell 4-week bills
1:00 US selling $35b 2-yr notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:00 AUD Conference Board Leadin Index
08:30 GBP BBA Loans for Home Purchases
12:30 CAD Retail Sales
13:00 CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Earnings

Before:
Harley-Davidson (HOG) EPS 58c
Regions Financial (RF) EPS 21c
DuPont (DD) EPS 47c
Coach (COH) EPS 76c
Xerox (XRX) EPS 25c
UPS (UPS) EPS $1.06
Whirlpool (WHR) EPS $1.60
After:
Netflix (NFLX) EPS 5c
Altera (ALTR) EPS 46c
Juniper Networks (JNPR) EPS 17c
Norfolk Southern (NSC) EPS $1.23
Aflac (AFL) EPS $1.66
Broadcom (BRCM) EPS 77c
3M (MMM) EPS $1.65

Wednesday, October 24

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
08:58 Markit US PMI Preliminary – consensus 51.5
10:00 New Home Sales – consensus 385K, prior 373K
10:00 New Home Sales MoM – consensus 3.2%, prior -0.3%
10:00 House Price Index MoM – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.2%
2:15 FOMC Rate Decision
1:00 US to sell $35b 5-yr notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD CPI
01:45 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing
07:30 EUR German PMI
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI
08:00 EUR German IFO Business Climate
20:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision
10:00 Italy to sell bills
10:30 Germany to sell EU4b in 10-year notes

Earnings

Before:
Snapple (DPS) EPS 77c
Lockheed Martin (LMT) EPS $1.85
General Dynamics (GD) EPS $1.78
Northrop Grumman (NOC) EPS $1.69
Corning (GLW) EPS 32c
T Rowe Price (TROW) EPS 84c
NASDAQ (NDAQ) EPS 60c
EMC (EMC) EPS 42c
Boeing (BA) EPS $1.12
AT&T (T) EPS 60c
After
F5 Networks (FFIV) EPS $1.18
Equity Residential (EQR) EPS 72c
Akamai (AKAM) EPS 41c
Citrix (CTXS) EPS 65c
Lorillard (LO) EPS $2.24
Bristol Myers (BMY) EPS 42c





Thursday, October 25

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 371K, prior 388K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3260K, prior 3252K
08:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index – consensus -0.2, prior -0.87
08:30 Durable Goods Orders – consensus 6.8%, prior -13.2%
08:30 Durable Goods ex Transports – consensus 0.9%, prior -1.6%
08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air – consensus 0.3%, prior 1.1%
08:30 Cap Goods Shipments Nondef Ex Air – consensus 0.5%, prior -0.9%
10:00 Pending Home Sales – consensus 2.0%, prior -2.6%
11:00 Kansas City Fed – consensus 5, prior 2
11:00 Fed to buy $4.5b-$5.5b notes in 8 to 10-year range
1:00 US selling $28b in 7-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

08:30 GBP GDP
21:45 NZD Trade Balance
23:30 JPY CPI
9:30 Spain to sell 3, 4, 10-year bonds
10:30 UK to sell 7-year bonds

Earnings

Before:
Procter & Gamble (PG) EPS 96c
Dow Chemical (DOW) EPS 37c
Starwood Hotels (HOT) EPS 53c
CME Group (CME) EPS 70c
Hershey (HSY) EPS 86c
Coca-Cola (KO) EPS 69c
International Paper (IP) EPS 77c
Raytheon (RTN) EPS $1.27
ConocoPhillips (CP) EPS $1.19
After
Eastman Chemical (EMN) EPS $1.42
Amazon (AMZN) EPS -10c
Apple (AAPL) EPS $8.87

Friday, October 26

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 GDP QoQ 3Q (Annualized) – consensus 1.8%, prior 1.3%
08:30 Personal Consumption – consensus 2.0%, prior 1.5%
08:30 GDP Price Index – consensus 2.0%, prior 1.6%
08:30 Core PCE QoQ – consensus 1.3%, prior 1.7%
09:55 University of Michigan Confidence – consensus 83.0, prior 83.1
11:00 Fed to buy $1.5b-$2.5b notes in the 10 to 20-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence
07:00 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicators
10:00 Italy to sell bills

Earnings

Before:
Legg Mason (LM) EPS 53c
First Solar (FSLR) EPS $1.08
Weyerhauser (WY) EPS 18c

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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