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Trading Radar: Waiting for Bernanke's Jackson Hole Speech


Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.


MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL It's the week that the markets have been waiting for for over a month. The central bankers of the world will meet in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to discuss monetary policy. Many market participants are expecting Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and ECB President Mario Draghi to give hints about what monetary policy they may pursue at their September meetings.

In the US, the first revision of GDP data will be released, with the first estimate showing a 1.5% annualized growth. After the Price Deflator, this would indicate a real growth of 0.0%. On Tuesday, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index will be released, and the market will be looking for an upside beat on economist expectations after recent housing data has shown increased improvement. The US Treasury will auction two-, five- and seven-year Treasuries this week.

Globally, we'll see inflation data from the eurozone, which is important information before the ECB's meeting on September 6. Consumer confidence data will be important to watch as eurozone countries struggle with increased austerity burdens. In China, we'll receive manufacturing data on Monday morning and over the following weekend.

Earnings wise, Tiffany's (TIF), Pandora (P), Heinz (HNZ), and Ciena (CIEN) will report.

Monday, August 27

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Dallas Fed - consensus -7.0, prior -13.2
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.5b-$2b notes in 25 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $32b 3-month bills, $28b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 CNY Industrial Profits YTD
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders
08:00 EUR German IFO- Business Climate
10:30 Germany selling EU3b 12-month bills


Tiffany's (TIF) EPS 73c
Samsonite (SMSOF) EPS 6c

Tuesday, August 28

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

09:00 S&P/Case Shiller 20 City Index MoM - consensus 0.30%, prior 0.91%
09:00 S&P/Case Shiller 20 City Index YoY - consensus -0.10%, prior -0.66%
10:00 Consumer Confidence - consensus 65.9, prior 65.9
10:00 Richmond Fed - consensus -11, prior -17
11:00 Fed selling $4.5b-$5.5b in 8 to 10-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 U.S. to sell $35b 2-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY Leading Index
01:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales
06:00 EUR German GFK Consumer Confidence
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator
9:30 Spain to sell 3-month,6-month bills
10:00 Italy to sell coupon bonds


No major reports

Wednesday, August 29

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
08:30 GDP QoQ (Annualized) - consensus 1.7%, prior 1.5%
08:30 Personal Consumption - consensus 1.5%, prior 1.5%
08:30 GDP Price Index - consensus 1.6%, prior 1.6%
08:30 Core PCE - consensus 1.8%, prior 1.8%
10:00 Pending Home Sales - consensus 1.0%, prior -1.4%
10:00 Pending Home Sales YoY - consensus 9.0%, prior 8.4%
2:00 Fed's Beige Book
11:00 Fed purchasing $4.25b-$5b in 6 to 8-year range
1:00 U.S. to sell $35b 5-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

07:00 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator
12:00 EUR German CPI
23:50 JPY Large Retailer Sales
10:00 Italy to sell bills


Joy Global (JOY) EPS $1.89
Fresh Market (TFM) EPS 27c
Heinz (HNZ) EPS 80c
Pandora (P) EPS -3c
TiVo (TIVO) EPS -24c
Vera Bradley (VRA) EPS 35c

Thursday, August 30

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 370K, prior 372K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3306K, prior 3317K
08:30 Personal Income - consensus 0.3%, prior 0.3%
08:30 Personal Spending - consensus 0.5%, prior 0.0%
08:30 PCE Deflator - consensus 1.4%, prior 1.5%
08:30 PCE Core - consensus 1.7%, prior 1.8%
11:00 Kansas City Fed - consensus 0, prior 5
11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2b Treasuries in 25 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $29b 7-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change
08:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence
23:30 JPY Household Spending
23:30 JPY CPI
10:00 Italy to sell bonds (floating, zero coupon)


Ciena (CIEN) EPS -2c

Friday, August 31

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

09:45 Chicago PMI - consensus 53.5, prior 53.7
09:55 University of Michigan Confidence 2nd Revision - consensus 73.6, prior 73.6
10:00 Factory Orders - consensus 1.5%, prior -0.5%
10:00 Bernanke speaks at Jackson Hole
1:15 BoE's Posen speaks on monetary policy at Jackson Hole
2:30 IMF's Lagarde speaks at Jackson Hole

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

05:00 JPY Housing Starts
06:00 EUR German Retail Sales
06:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate
12:30 CAD GDP
11:10 UK to sell bills



Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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