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Trading Radar: Fed Decision Is Highlight of the Week


Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL After the first slug of November economic data today showed a slightly better increase than expected, we may see follow-through in more datapoints next week. The major datapoints will be the US trade balance, consumer price index, and import price index. All are expected to decline from last month's figure.

The most anticipated market event for the week will be the Fed's monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, with a decision to be released at 12:30 p.m. It is expected by nearly every market participant that the Fed will increase its QE3 program to include $45 billion of outright monthly purchases of Treasuries, adding to the existing $40 billion of MBS purchases. Anything less will likely be met with a negative response from the market.

In the fixed income world, the Treasury will auction off 3-, 10-, and 30-year bonds next week.

Globally, the major reports will be from the German ZEW confidence survey, UK unemployment, and the Swiss National Bank's rate decision. This past week, the SNB and local Swiss banks decided to charge customers for holding their short-term deposits.

In earnings, Dollar General (NYSE:DG), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Ciena (NASDAQ:CIEN), and Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) will highlight the major reports of the week.

Monday, December 10

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

No major economic reports
11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $32b 3-month, $28b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY Trade Balance
CNY New Yuan Loans
JPY Eco Watchers
00:30 AUD Home Loans
04:30 JPY Consumer Confidence
04:30 JPY Bankruptcies
07:30 EUR German Trade Balance
9:30 EUR Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence
10:00 EUR Italian GDP
13:15 CAD Housing Starts
21:45 NZD NZ Card Spending


Camelot Information Systems (CIS)
Ferrellgas Partners (FGP)
ABM Industries (ABM)
Casey's General (CASY)
Greif (GEF)
Investors Real Estate Trust (IRET)
Landauer (LDR)
Peregrine Pharma (PPHM)
Synergetics (SURG)
Teavana (TEA)

Tuesday, December 11

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism – consensus 92.5, prior 93.1
08:30 Trade Balance – consensus -$42.6B, prior -$41.5B
10:00 Wholesale Inventories – consensus 0.4%, prior 1.1%
10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism – consensus 50.0, prior 48.6
11:00 Fed to buy $1b-$1.5b TIPS in 7 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week, $25b 5-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $32b 3-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance
00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence
10:00 EUR German ZEW Survey
10:00 EUR Euro-zone ZEW Survey
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence


Dollar General (DG)
Pantry (PTRY)

Wednesday, December 12

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Index
08:30 Import Price Index – consensus -1.0%, prior 0.4%
10:30 Crude Inventories
12:30 FOMC Rate Decision
2:00 Treasury Budget – consensus -$140.5B, consensus -$137.3B
1:00 Treasury selling $21b 10-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

NZD Reinz House Sales
07:00 EUR German CPI
09:30 GBP Jobless Claims
09:30 GBP Unemployment
10:00 CHF ZEW Survey
10:00 EUR Euro-zone Industrial Production
21:30 NZD Business Performance of Manufacturing Index


Costco (COST)
Joy Global (JOY)
Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR)
Central Garden (CENT)
Restoration Hardware (RH)

Thursday, December 13

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Claims – consensus 370K, prior 370K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3215K, prior 3205K
08:30 Retail Sales – consensus 0.4%, prior -0.3%
08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto – consensus 0.0%, prior 0.0%
08:30 Producer Price Index – consensus 1.8%, prior 2.3%
08:30 PPI Ex Food & Energy – consensus 2.2%, prior 2.1%
10:00 Business Inventories – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.7%
11:00 Fed buying $4.25b-$5.25b notes in 9 to 10-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $13b 30-year bonds (reopen)
2:00 Fed selling $7b-$8b notes in 2.5-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation
06:45 CHF SECO December 2012 Economic Forecasts
08:30 CHF Swiss National Bank Rate Decision
09:00 EUR ECB Monthly Report
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook/Index
9:30 Spain to sell debt
10:00 Italy to sell debt


Ciena (CIEN)
Comverse Technology (CMVT)
Hovnanian (HOV)
Pier 1 Imports (PIR)
Quanex (NX)
Shiff Nutrition (SHF)

Adobe (ADBE)
Nordson (NDSN)
Quiksilver (ZQK)
VeriFone (PAY)

Friday, December 14

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

8:30 Consumer Price Index – consensus 1.9%, prior 2.2%
8:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy – consensus 2.0%, prior 2.0%
8:58 Markit US PMI preliminary – consensus 52.0, prior 52.4
9:15 Industrial Production – consensus 0.2%, prior -0.4%
9:15 Capacity Utilization – consensus 78.0%, prior 77.8%
9:15 Manufacturing (SIC) Production – consensus 0.3%, prior -0.9%
11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

CNY Actual FDI
01:45 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
04:30 JPY Industrial Production
10:00 EUR Euro-zone Consumer Price Index


Rick's Cabaret (RICK)

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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