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Trading Radar: ECB Rate Decision and China Data

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Economics, earnings reports, and market events for the week ahead.

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MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL On the radar next week is the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE). It is expected that the Bank of England will enhance its asset purchase program by between 25 billion and 50 billion pounds as the central bank comes under pressure from the English government to stimulate growth. From the ECB, we can't expect much. The one upside can be a change in the reluctance of the official sector to take losses over its purchases of sovereign debt and loans. Otherwise, the ECB's hands are tied with the extent of what it can do to boost growth and reduce tail risk.

Also in global economic data, China will release a slew of monthly economic figures on Friday night, including Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and CPI. This past week, Chinese economic releases have pointed toward an end to weakness for the Chinese economy.

Stateside, the ISM non-manufacturing composite will be important as the US economy has transferred to one that is more services-based. Other than that, the University of Michigan Confidence and Import Price Indexes will be notable. The Treasury will sell a larger-than-normal amount of notes and bonds this week in 3-,10-, and 30-year bonds.

Notable earnings include Groupon (NYSE:GRPN), Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC), News Corp (NYSE:NWSA), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).

Monday, November 5

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

10:00 ISM Non-manufacturing Composite - consensus 54.5, prior 55.1
11:00 Fed to sell $1.75b-$2.25b in 25 to 30-year bonds
11:30 Treasury to sell $32b 3-month, $28b 6-month bills

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Retail Sales
01:45 CNY HSBC Services PMI
09:30 GBP Services PMI
09:30 EUR Eurozone Investor Confidence

Earnings

Before:
Time Warner Cable (TWC)
Tesla Motors (TSLA)
After:
Express Scripts (ESRX)
CF Industries (CF)
Zillow (Z)
Walter Energy (WLT)


Tuesday, November 6

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

10:00 JOLTs Job Openings - prior 3561
11:00 Fed to buy $4.25b-$5.25b 6 to 8-year notes
11:30 US to sell 4-week bills
1:00 US to sell $32b 3-year notes
US presidential elections

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

03:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
05:00 JPY Leading Index
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI
09:30 GBP Industrial Production
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders
9:30 UK to sell GBP900m in 35-year inflation linked bonds
12:10 Draghi speaking in Frankfurt

Earnings

Before:
NYSE Euronext (NYX)
Vivus (VVUS)
Marathon Oil (MRO)
Cablevision (CVC)
Fossil (FOSL)
Discovery Communications (DISCA)
After:
News Corp (NWSA)
Arena Pharma (ARNA)
Liberty Media (LMCA)
Office Depot (ODP
DirecTV (DTV)
AOL (AOL)


Wednesday, November 7

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
3:00 Consumer Credit - consensus $10.175B, prior $18.123B
11:00 Fed to buy $1.75b-$2.25b of 25-30-year bonds
1:00 Treasury selling $24b 10-year notes
2:00 Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes in 2 to 3-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

08:15 CHF CPI
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales
11:00 EUR German Industrial Production
23:50 JPY Trade Balance
10:30 Germany to sell EU4b 5-year notes

Earnings

Before:
Time Warner (TWX)
Starwood Properties (HOT)
Kraft Foods (KRFT)
After
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Activision Blizzard (ATVI)
Whole Foods (WFM)
Continental Resources (CLR)
Prudential (PRU)
MAKO Surgical (MAKO)
Monster Beverage (MNST)
CBS (CBS)
Macy's (M)


Thursday, November 8

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 368K, prior 363K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3260K, prior 3263K
08:30 Trade Balance - consensus -$45.0B, prior -$44.2B
11:00 Fed to buy $4.25b-$5.25b notes in 8 to 10-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $16b 30-year bonds

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate
04:30 JPY Bankruptcies
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate
07:00 EUR German Trade Balance
12:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision
12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision
13:15 CAD Housing Starts

Earnings

Before:
Monster Worldwide (MWW)
Kohl's (KSS)
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)
Duke Energy (DUK)
After
Nvidia (NVDA)
Energizer Holdings (ENR)
Nordstrom (JWN)
Molycorp (MCP)
Groupon (GRPN)


Friday, November 9

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Import Price Index YoY - consensus -0.5%, prior -0.6%
09:55 University of Michigan Confidence (1st estimate) - consensus 82.9, prior 82.6
10:00 Wholesale Inventories - consensus 0.4%, prior 0.5%
11:00Fed to buy $1b-$1.5b TIPS in 7 to 30-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

01:30 CNY CPI
01:30 CNY PPI
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence
05:30 CNY Industrial Production
05:30 CNY Retail Sales
07:00 EUR German CPI
09:30 GBP Trade Balance

Earnings

Before:
JCPenney (JCP)
Apollo Global (APO)


Twitter: @MichaelSedacca

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